Monday, October 19, 2009

NBAA 2009


Honeywell released their eighteenth annual business aviation outlook this week, coincident with the NBAA convention in Orlando FL (Oct 20-22). The chart shows their overall forecast of the biz jet deliveries for the next 10 years. Next year is forecast to be about 10 percent slower than this year.

In the "glass half full" department, if one considers that most 2009 deliveries occurred in the first half of this year, then perhaps it is correct to infer that the current delivery rates represent the bottom of the production rate forecast.

(In the "glass half empty" department, the forecast shows strong sales for the nine years after 2010; some earlier review of the past five business cycles suggests that their is about an eight year period, which would have a downward trend resuming in 2019 or so. Maybe globalization, etc. will keep it from happening in 2019. Then again, it was supposed to keep it from happening this time too...).

Jack Pelton, Cessna's CEO, had some words of cautious optimism. Pelton commented "the international markets seem less frozen than our domestic market right now, particularly Western Europe and South America" (indeed as our friend Baron noted on his recent visit to Brazil).

China is stimulating the business jet market somewhat as well, relaxing domestic flight plan filing to three hours, and reducing tariffs.

In the cool news department, Garmin unveiled their G3000 suite, for "light turbine" aircraft. (Still a couple years away from deployment).

In other cool news, Learjet has their in-development model 85 mockup on display there too, with it's revised flight deck.

It will be interesting to hear what visitors to the NBAA show have to say regarding attendance and displays- please drop a line or make a post to update us!

71 comments:

Phil Bell said...

Molly McMillin with the Wichita Eagle has a nice article on this year's NBAA, and notes
"Last year's show attracted a record 1,100 exhibitors and about 30,000 attendees. About 1,000 exhibitors are signed up for this year's show."

It will be interesting to see how foot (and air!) traffic corresponds to the number of exhibits.

fred said...

Thanks a lot Phil ... but i still take myself not seriously enough to believe deserving attention ...

there is no good or bad opinions , only different opinions !

Baron : am i out of my mind ?

ok , let's do a check :

US leadership is not ending. It's simply becoming less dominant - and that is healthy.

leadership IS about being dominant , sorry ...
if i would agree that it will be healthy , you have to admit that a beauty loosing her beauty is no more beautiful ...
some will say that she WAS or she HAS BEEN ...
nonetheless , one thing is deadly sure in the world = you cannot have been and still be at the same time !

you see , my poor friend , what is important about having problems IS NOT the problem in itself ...

but a lot more the ability to understand What and Where is the problem !!

I'd like to see the US$ drop slowly to the $2/Euro level over a couple of years and $0.2/Yen, so we can fairly capitalize on that export market.

this is why i wrote that MOST americans workers are going to see their income lowering to some kind of chinese wages ...

Airsafety is right on this ... the ones at the top will benefit , 99% of population would become proletarian ...

do not forget that at this very time , USA is importing the biggest majority of what is consumed , € at 2$ will only make those products a lot more expensive , hence the needs to print more , leading to € at 3 ...4...5...etc $

this is a very dangerous game , Germany experienced it before WW2 , it led them to some major disagreements !!

and WHO is going to compensate for those products = US workers , but i can bet a lot that you will be the first one NOT WILLING to pay a lot more your apples , fruit-juices and T-bones because there is a direct relation on what you pay your product and the wages paid to produce it ...

unless you want to do your flight in Gliders , what about Oil price ? is that supposed to become a luxury ? don't forget that most of US towns are absolutely not meant for something else than cars use ... both by the way the suburbs were done and by the lack of public transport infrastructure .

we are in the "Oil Addiction time" , changing is going to be quite painful ... especially for the ones who believe "Tomorrow will never exist"

Peace + Freer Trade + 2B more humans consuming. That combination has never seen before and it will be a boom louder than an F105 at M2 ;)

yes , but out of this count today :

over ONE Billion peoples IS NOT eating to their needs ...

more than TWO Billions are living under poverty levels ...

about Half of world population have some sort of problems in access to clean and drinkable water (i remind you :IF you can stop eating for 2 or 3 weeks without too much problems , you cannot stop drinking for more than 4 days without consequences !)

in Those peoples not eating enough : the main aspect of it = BECAUSE both USA and E.U. has paid much too many subsides to their farmers and paid to dump the excess of production to poorer countries ...

am i out of my brain ? may be ...
still i believe that we cannot continue our course to self-annihilation without grave consequences !

gadfly said...

Fred make good sense!

gadfly

baron95 said...

Phil - good post.

Fred - you need to lighten up buddy: "continue our course to self-annihilation ". Please!!!

Where do you get this stuff? Day after day after day people all over the planet is eating better, living longer, having better health care, more disposable income.

There is virtually no population in the planet seeing worse conditions. And the rate of advancement is accelerating.

You should try some anti-depressants.

fred said...

Baron :

i think you have the "Me , Mine & Myself" complex ... (known as well as "belly-button sight" )

are you sure you have been to Brazil lately ?
a youngster in the favella : how much life expectancy can he get ?

20 ... 25 ?
not related to health , more surely to poverty and crime rate ...

some African countries : if a baby get over 5 years old , it is already a blessing ...
how many have a life long enough to see their own kids getting married ?

in some eastern-european places : Tuberculosis and "forgotten" diseases are coming back ...

so life is better ...

but ONLY in richest places , for others , i am not so sure ...

and even if life could be what you describe , it only mean more to share the same cake ... which is not expandable !

H.M.E said...

Avweb Youtube for G3000 :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82SNct8xw2Q

Nice..

Floating Cloud said...

Gentlemen please, back to flying!

Just returned to ABQ from Denver and from the air could see the view that the Eclipse buildings eclipsed. Too bad... it must have been a wonderful spot. I watched the planes take off at the Denver airport while waiting for my flight home and thought about how all things airplane seem to interest me now. And even oddly enough I have met three pilots (and one a woman) in the past few weeks, one on the Frontier airline flight seated next to me, and one at the pool who offered to take me flying (not the woman), but I wasn't sure if that was a smart thing to do... get in an airplane with a stranger!? I am still pursuing my interest to learn to fly and investigating the possibilities, but tuition remission from UNM is not going to cover everything for sure. One pilot suggested that I join the Civil Air Patrol at Kirkland -- hey, I could offer my search and rescue services if needed (I used to live in LA.) Then on the plane from Denver I ran across this article on air traffic control in a Time magazine. It would seem that the innovation needed to move the aviation industry forward is not only in airplanes....

Floating Cloud

http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1929071_1929070_1929069-2,00.html

PS How the heck do you add a real link to a blog post? To think I want to learn to fly and I can’t figure that out! Geez

Shane Price said...

Floating Cloud,

It's one of those 'tricks' you have to dig out...

Here's a good starting point for you.

If you're still having trouble afterwards, email me (on the 'old' address, eclipsecriticng@gmail.com) and I'll reply with sample HTML.

The trouble with HTML inside a blog comment window is that, well, it gets interpreted.

So you can't see the code itself....

Your legitimate question brings to mind the the 'Catch 22' that is the current economic downturn.

Nobody wants' to invest in anything, afraid that we haven't seen the bottom of the market yet.

Which is exactly the reason why international markets are in turmoil, because investment is lacking.

However, Baron is still convinced that everything is rosy, so nobody need worry about anything.

One swallow is all it takes for spring to start, I suppose....

Phil,

Thanks for the NBAA round up. I noted the G3000 myself, which seems to be something EAI might consider, after they ditch AvioNG.

I can see how much Ken would love those touch screens. It would pretty much make his day, don't you think?

Shane

gadfly said...

Cloud

“get in an airplane with a stranger!?”

Sorry, friend, but that is rich! The countless times I got aboard an airplane . . . flying in piston aircraft across thousands of miles of the Pacific . . . even landing on a short runway at “Wake Island” (take a look sometime on Google Earth, and think of coming in on that strip, running on “fumes”, with four P&W eighteen-cylinder engines, with no “go-a-round” . . . with the wing swinging out over “surf”, at the end of the landing, to taxi back to the terminal). I cannot remember a single time when I ever placed my life in the care of a “friend”. In flight school, I would not often call the chief flight instructor a “friend”. In fact, one time in a blinding rain storm in Illinois, with the chief flight instructor “at the wheel”, we drove at insane speeds on the highway out to “Roselle Airport”, for some reason that I cannot now remember. (That short trip was far more dangerous than anything I experienced in all those hundreds of hours under the surface aboard the sub . . . or countless hours aboard aircraft.) Obviously, we didn’t run head-long into another vehicle on that very narrow two-lane highway. But he was considered an excellent pilot . . . but a friend? When I graduated from that school, he and I were still strangers . . . and remain so to this day.

“get in an airplane with a stranger!?” . . . and what about the dozens of passengers, etc., etc.

Or simply driving along I-40 or I-25 especially when "Sandia Labs" and "Kirtland AFB" gets off work . . . Now that is truly scary!

gadfly

(In today’s world, it is far more dangerous to attempt to be born “alive” in Chicago, than go up in a single engine Cessna while preparing to make that first solo flight. If you don’t believe it, just check with our “Commander in Chief”, and his voting record back in Illinois. ‘Sorry if it offends, but there it is . . . and it truly breaks my heart.)

baron95 said...

are you sure you have been to Brazil lately ?
a youngster in the favella much life expectancy can he get ?

Yes. Have you?

Here is a typical picture of brazilian kids in the favelas.

They look pretty healthy and consuming just fine to me

Life expectancy in the low 60s.

baron95 said...

Fun expectancy - off the charts.

baron95 said...

And certainly less scary than your typical european slum.

gadfly said...

Baron

Although I do not wish to make comments that are aimed at individuals, me thinks you should "give it up" . . . you have your own world, and you are welcome to it.

To relate the real world in discussion on this blog-site would be more than most folks could tolerate. Some of the folks on this blog are far more in tune with realities that are beyond description in polite company, and evidently outside the borders of your protected world. Some self-inflicted horrors are, unfortunately, within the borders of the US of A.

Give it up, friend . . . simply "give it up".

If you wish to talk of aviation, then let's keep it there. If you wish to push it elsewhere . . . you are opening a can of worms you cannot contain.

gadfly

(In case you haven't noticed, this world is not a safe place in which to invest your future. Some of us prefer to be "Pilgrims" and "Sojourners". And in the mean time, it's "fun" to fly around in this present land . . . but never call it "home".)

gadfly said...

“From a distance the world looks blue and green,
and the snow-capped mountains white.
From a distance the ocean meets the stream,
and the eagle takes to flight.

From a distance, there is harmony,
and it echoes through the land.
It's the voice of hope, it's the voice of peace,
it's the voice of every man.

From a distance we all have enough,
and no one is in need.
And there are no guns, no bombs, and no disease,
no hungry mouths to feed.

From a distance we are instruments
marching in a common band.
Playing songs of hope, playing songs of peace.
They're the songs of every man.
God is watching us. God is watching us.
God is watching us from a distance.

From a distance you look like my friend,
even though we are at war.
From a distance I just cannot comprehend
what all this fighting is for.

From a distance there is harmony,
and it echoes through the land.
And it's the hope of hopes, it's the love of loves,
it's the heart of every man.

It's the hope of hopes, it's the love of loves.
This is the song of every man.
And God is watching us, God is watching us,
God is watching us from a distance.
Oh, God is watching us, God is watching.
God is watching us from a distance”


A couple decades ago, a song was popular, sung by Bette Midler . . . and it was well done . . . except that the words were “backwards”. It stated that God is watching “from a distance”, when in truth, He is “close up”, and it is “we” who prefer to look at the world from a distance. And maybe therein is the “fun”, the “intrigue”, the pleasure of flying.

On that first flight . . . when the instructor climbs out at the end of the runway, and says, “OK . . . you take it from here” . . . and you apply full throttle, and take to the air, and enjoy looking down at the earth, forgetting for a few minutes that not long from now, you have to “turn base leg” and then “final”, and get this thing safely back to earth . . . and not land ten or twenty feet off the runway, pushing that spring landing gear beyond the limits of design, when forty degrees of flap can no longer allow you to float . . . on and on and on!

We, as pilots, enjoy the pleasure of looking at the world, the earth beneath, from a distance. Our eyes cannot focus on the problems of everyday life . . . we look down at rainbows from 49,000 feet . . . complete circles that chase us along at four or five hundreds knots . . . and the world is beautiful.

But sooner than later, we have to come back down . . . and get a glimpse of what God sees . . . and unfortunately, it is not all that pretty, and peaceful. We shut down, and enter, again, the real world that we left behind, an hour or three earlier.

Yes . . . we who have the pleasure of flying, as pilots, or even as passengers, can enjoy for a small piece of time, the realm of the eagle, the falcon, the albatross . . . but in the end, we must return to earth, and see what God sees.

gadfly

Floating Cloud said...

Dearest Gadfly:

Please understand that I am not leery of a stranger being able to fly an airplane but rather being alone with a stranger in an airplane is another thing – very much along the lines of don’t take candy or accept a ride from a stranger way of thinking that most every woman has to consider no matter how handsome the offer. I am very much interested to keep my self intact, life and limb, whether above or on the ground!

"From a Distance," is a beautiful song and reminds me of one of my favorite authors that I have referred to before on Eclipse Critique NG, Isak Dinesen aka Karen von Blixen (Here is where I'd add a Wikipedia link when I figure out how to do it Shane, Thank you!). Karen refers to one of the greatest gifts that was ever given to her by Denis Finch-Hutton -- alongside the pen to write her stories he gave her a ride in an airplane c.1913 (?) in Kenya where she, "…saw a glimpse of the world through God's eye, and I thought, yes, that is the way God intended it to be."

Notwithstanding, Baron you are pushing my limits. There are real ways poverty is measured by professionals and I don’t care what you think, but there is no way your anecdotal bikini assessment is a measurement of the state of the world’s socio-economic condition other than for your own narcissistic, colonialist ventures. You actually admitted once to me that you think both “real and fake are the same”…In your world I guess they are. How very sad.

Floating Cloud

EclipsePilotOMSIV said...

NBAA was slow today. At least the static area was. G3000 seems like a pretty sweet system though.

gadfly said...

Floating Cloud

Your earlier comments were clearly understood, but I chose to go down a different path. Once you take some lessons and sit in the left seat of almost any small aircraft, you will realize that both student and instructor will have no opportunity to do other than keep ailerons, rudder, elevator, and engine all coordinated . . . at least until someone figures a way to "park" on a cloud bank, overlooking the beach at Malibu.

gadfly

baron95 said...

Fair enough Gadfly.

Just hart to have any discussion amidst all the "world is ending" noise.

In the past century we had flu pandemics, multiple stock crashes, dust bowls, great depression, two world wars, two atomic bombs, the rise of international terrorism, AIDs, etc, etc, etc.

Yet, the global standard of living was some 800% larger at the end of the century than at the beginning.

This century will likely be more peaceful, more disease free, more open, and there is no reason to expect anything else other than even bigger gains.

Think about the world in 1918. And then in 2008. Now project the same advances to 2099.

Not unlikely at all that jets will take-off/land under whisper quiet electric fan jets, fly at ridiculously low SFCs with unimaginable automation and safety systems. It may be burning hydrogen or biofuel in cruise. We may go a whole year without an IFR GA accident, just like now we go a year or two without an airline accident.

When you get to the airport, you can expect lots of self serve jetport services and parking, including a exchange type membership car rental service into incredibly safer cars.

The standard of living of those at the departure and destination airports, be it Sao Paulo, Beijing, Miami or Nice will be more even and much higher than today. Air will be much cleaner. People will be healthier.

It is a bright future.

Pretty hard to sit by the sidelines when people preach doom and gloom.

The world has never, even in periods of major wars, depressions and medical catastrophes gone backwards in standard of living for more than a few short years.

It just has never happened and will not happen.

Aviation also.

We fly in safer, smoke free commercial airliners that charge us a tiny, tiny fraction of our incomes to take us 5,000 miles away.

GA needs to get "on the step" to use a sea plane analogy and join jet aviation.

We are still far from that, but we are much, much closer than we were 10 years ago.

(PA = personal aviation)
PA Glass is here. PA FMS is here. PA turbofans are here. PA composites are here.

Just need a few airframes to get going. It may be next decade or the one after, but we will get there.

baron95 said...

Now back to your lovely doom and gloom. Have fun.

fred said...

Baron :

you should follow Monsieur Gadfly advice ...

give it up !

but just before , could you explain why :

*President Lula said that the biggest challenge of all for 2016 Olympic Game will be be assured some kind of decent safety for visitors ...

*how many dead per year and what is exactly "Death Squadrons"

*How peoples died in last event in Rio (last week ) 25 ? a police helicopter shot down and at least 3 dead from "Lost bullets" ...

and you want to add 2 Billions more peoples in those conditions to make a profit ?

you see , you are the incarnation of what i hated in N.Y. , peoples able to play the worst cynical to make a buck more ...

only play ...

because most was afraid of even crossing the street alone !

the world isn't limited to your block ...

you are right in saying that things got better for few ... but those few are exhausting the resources that the others (which is about 4/5 of world population) want to have the share they deserve as well ...

you are right the world has recovered before ... and it will do it again ...

only the ones holding the stick , then , are going to be different ...

do you want to be ready or do you prefer to stay until the party is over and everybody has left ?

baron95 said...

Fred - I'm trying to give it up.

Brazil has a public safety problem. So does Russia and South Africa.

The police, courts and laws are way behind the curve there.

That has been the problem in Rio for the Pan Am games, will be the problem for 2014 world cup and 2016 olympic games and probably will still be the problem in 2030.

New York City had similar problems. It took 2 administrations (8 years) of a law and order mentality to completely clean up crime in NY.

I now take my kids to times square for dinner, strolling and shopping. 20 years ago it was a drug dealer, prostitute infested, crime ridden neighborhood.

That is how fast things can change with the proper policies.

Some time in the future Rio may have the right attitude and stamp out crime.

Until them, people will lcontinue to flourish, and build homes, and go to school and buy TVs, and go to work, even though a good number of them are living amongst drug gangs and police gangs.

That is life. Jews survived the Holocaust and are prospering, clearly Rio favela residents can survive a little police/drug dealer crossfire.

Nothing to it.

Now back to doom and gloom.

airsafetyman said...

Floating Cloud,

I enjoy your posts but time for a reality check. The accident rate for privately flown aircraft (excluding professionally flown corporate aircraft) is about midway between the rate for automobile accidents and that for motorcycles. It is high. The old bromide that "the car trip to the airport is the most dangerous part of the trip" is most definitely not true. The instructional accident rate is somewhat lower, however. A lot of flight students drop out during the process, and a lot of people who do get their liscenses find they can not afford to fly enough to stay current. If you can find an active and well-run flying club either before or after you get your liscense it may be worthwhile depending on your situation.

Deep Blue said...

The Honeywell forecasts are generally quite good but they tend to be fairly consensus and don't take a tough line either way, up or down; the message is pretty much "a bit worse or a bit better than last year."

I also don't think any of these "forecasts" ever spot a trend and function mostly to keep suppliers and banks from panicking.

On a more interesting note, you all probably saw the Boeing loss reported this morning; another $1.5B. I don't know about you but I don't see this 787 having anything other than terrible teething problems (if they're lucky).

fred said...

baron :

Fine !

What i was looking to read from you was that the common denominator IS POVERTY ...

That is how fast things can change with the proper policies.

yes , i agree ...
but with the +/- 3 millions Homes which are going to be repossessed by banks this year alone :

can you believe things are fine ?

how can you believe that economy is RECOVERING when Bank of America is saying that they have lost 1 Billion $ (in real economy) with all the credit-repayment defaults ?

i admit that it can be quite confusing when Goldmann says at same time "Whoppee , we are even making more profits than before ..."

in fact , IF someone wants to look at the numbers close enough :

with all the Hundreds of Billions they got , they should have a magnitude of profits calculated in few hundreds of billions as well ...

reality : WS is having the same conduct that Vern had in his time ...

"Hang on for an other day ... something may happen !"

and exactly like Vern did = IF illusions are on , hopes are STILL !

this is where there is a kind of schizophrenia going on :

There is a recovery , Traders are going to share mega-bonus like previously ...

Stocks is presented like Booming ...

BUT

at same time :

There is no credit for "normal" peoples being granted ...

there is NO jobs creation ...

AND the most curious , with all the Trillions injected = INFLATION is still flat as a dead rat after a truck run it over !
(which is NOT possible , unless all those liquidities are only hiding a massive deflation ...)

so ,and this was my primary idea , IF you believe that things are going to come back to previous status ...

you might as well be blind !

what is experienced now is a correction of all excess accumulated since much too long in USA ...

the "best" solution would have been to let the market do its jobs ...
not to make bail-out , Tarp and so on ...

Politically Highly Incorrect !

so in an attempt to save a zombie , they played the income tax of your descendants for a few generations ...

it ALL started when US Public and politics forgot a remarkable saying from Benjamin franklin :

"If we trade our Liberty for some security , we will end up loosing both ...!"

Floating Cloud said...

Hi Shane:

Thank you for the information! Who would have thought adding a clickable link to a blog would be so exciting! Wait until I get in an airplane! See the links below that correlate to my two prior posts.

Getting Air Traffic Under Control

karen blixen

And Thank you, Airsafetyman:

I wondered if getting into an airplane with any Joe Schmoe who says he can fly might be risky. I'll stick with the instuctors to start with.

Dear Gadfly:

I do like the idea of parking on a cloud in Malibu with the right Joe Schmoe....they don't call my Floating Cloud for nothing!

Floating Cloud

gadfly said...

Well, "floating one", take a look at the picture taken by the husband of one of my high-school classmates, of what washed up in their own front yard a couple evenings ago. It's about four or five hundred miles north of Malibu, and the picture was not taken from a "cloud", but interesting, just the same.

Seventy feet long . . . and weighing close to 100,000 pounds . . . well, you get the picture, especially if you go to the website.

http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20091021/NEWS/910219973/1349?Title=More-info-sought-on-whale

gadfly

(In my day, I've listened to many whales on "Sonar", but never a "Blue".)

(And concerning the PCH and Malibu . . . well, that's not for the present audience.)

gadfly said...

Cloud . . . while you seem to be most involved in exploration, of sorts, my favorite uncle had a movie company, “Everett L. Ingraham Productions”, and pioneered early nature filming, times lapse photography, etc., for the California Fish and Game, American Potash (remember “20 mule team borax? . . . think taking a movie image of an explosion coming right at the camera, deep under the Southern California desert, with incandescent bulbs imploding, in slow motion, as a wall of borax comes forward, to stop just short of the camera), etc.

Once, he and others approached the widow, Osa Johnson, to encourage her to preserve the many films taken by her, and her husband, Martin. She was not open to taking the necessary precautions, and most of those early acetate films went to powder. In the early days of TV, the films of “Martin and Osa Johnson” were shown to an eager audience . . . and we learned of strange lands and peoples. But carelessness has caused the loss of those fragile films . . . and they remain for the most part only in the fading memories of the few of us who were privileged to witness them.

What’s the point? . . . ‘Don’t rightly know . . . us old folks tend to disremember stuff . . . but it would seem to me that what ever you undertake, give it everything you have, and treat is most seriously . . . but don’t take yourself too seriously.

gadfly

(Now, where was I? . . . )

(Art Linkletter, in his late nineties, visiting an “Old Folks Home”, asked one of the lady patients: 'Do you know who I am?' 'No,' says she, 'but if you check at the front desk, they may be able to tell you!' Ain’t life great? Yep, don’t take yourself too seriously . . . at any age . . . you probably are not going to get out alive.)

gadfly said...

Footnote: Early on, I would go back and "proof read" my earlier comments . . . seeing glaring mistakes. But perfection is beyond my grasp.

In my office I have a “Gerstner” toolbox . . . solid oak, with a light blue “Lockheed” label on the “left end”, “Personal Property of Clifford Cushman”. Within those drawers, lay micrometers, telescope gages, . . . and countless other items, all cradled in machined pockets of “sugar pine”, painted a deep scarlet red enamel . . . and my memory returns to a Lockheed YP-38 screaming overhead . . . a wonderful airplane, which at five or six years old, I little understood . . . but that was something on which my Daddy worked.

Well, it would be nice if the problems of the world were as simple as when my father was working on the “flutter” of the horizontal stabilizer of those early “Lightnings”, when the solution was a simple little weighted “counter balance” (you’ve seen it, if you’ve ever looked close at a picture of those twin engined “forked devils”). But we live in a different time . . . and few care to understand the past.

One of the simplest tools I own is my favorite . . . even exceeding CNC machines worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. It’s so simple, most would miss it. It's about six inches long . . . an inch in width, and about .080" thick, made by hand from an early “Starrett” power hack-saw blade. My Daddy made it . . . and it is made to scrape wood patterns, bees-wax fillets . . . and I use it to “de-burr” aluminum parts. It is a simple tool, but allows me as a craftsman to apply my skill to something as simple as a piece of wood . . . it got me through “spruce spar splices” back in “A&P” school, and countless other jobs since. Once, for many months, I lost the tool . . . and one day found it again. I’ve programmed the shape . . . made many “wirecut-EDM” duplicates of hardened steel, and given them to other machinists . . . carefully teaching them how to “shear” a burr, and avoid “chatter”, etc. The only requirement of the tool is that it is available and sharp . . . I’ll do the rest.

By now, most readers have long ago lost interest, but the few of you who have followed down may find in this monologue some applications. We can look at the Eclipse, for instance, and see the possibility of “short cuts” . . . where the computer rules . . . and all is a simple thing of knowing which command to select. Well, that didn’t work, did it?!

But in real life, knowledge and wisdom . . . it all takes time, understanding, etc. . . . and the “tools”, whether the “scraper”, mentioned above, or the expensive computerized machines, and all the hardware/software to support it, requires the human mind, and wisdom to apply it. There are no shortcuts. It takes a craftsman, a product, and sharp/ready tools, to bring the two together.

Machines and computers and software are simply “tools” . . . links, if you will, between a skilled mind and an end product. There’s no free lunch.

That’s enough for now . . . we’ll continue another time.

gadfly

baron95 said...

Hi Fred. I disagree that the issue is poverty. It clearly is not. It is poverty AND policies.

Crime in America took a nose dive, when law and order policies, three strikes laws, mandatory sentences and reinvigorated death penalty cases came to the front. In the meantime, poverty rates barely changed.

China has a much, much higher poverty rate then Brazil. Yet there is no violent crime there. The gvmt, society, culture does not tolerate it.

As for people losing their homes...those people were renters in 2000, home owners in 2005, and will be renters again in 2010. Nothing to it.

They are making an economic decision. I owe $300K, my home dropped in value to $200K, I'm walking away. Or, I lost my job, I'll live for free for 3-6 months (paying no rent, no mortgage) till I'm foreclosed, than I move with family, etc. Come 2010/2011, those same homes (by the way financed 45% by overseas investments) will still be there, and will be much cheaper. Then these people will buy them again for $200K. Smart. Savy. Expected.

A bit of dislocation? Sure. Stressful? Sure. End of the world? Hardly. It is a self correcting problem. Rents and home prices will decline, till they get back in line with incomes.

The difference is that in the US, these adjustments are lighting fast. The steep down curve feels like a plane in a spin. Out of control. Until someone kicks the rudder and voila. We are climbing again.

Aviation will be the same.

The only "at risk" portion is the US Gvmt attack to business aviation and lack of support for GA. Where is the cash for flunkers (flying clunkers)?

Where is the Glassia (Glass safety improvement act to upgrade cockpits)?

Lets say Obama gives every owner $10K to upgrade planes to glass panel or $25K to trade up old planes? Combine that with 0% financing for planes built in the US.

Things can change fast. It is a matter of policy.

Instead, he chose to spend $66B gifting GM and Chrysler to the UAW and Fiat.

Oh well. The chief is the chief. I'm just a pilot ;) You are just a sailor ;)

fred said...

baron ...

once again you are seeing the side of the coin you want ...

off course , things can change pretty fast ... but not always for the better !

as for crime rate in USA , it didn't drop , the culprits have just been sent away ... (locked)

on that i won't argue , it is a choice , a society-choice , who am i to say :"the chinese way of punishment is wrong!" (for info: you are sent to trial , sentenced [off-course not in all case] you take the exit and behind the door , a soldier place one bullet in your head , end of story!)

what you describe in your "poverty & policies" isn't working ...

sorry !

it would mean that the rich (decider's) and powerful are dictating some rules for the poor ... (i agree that this is the case already ...)

in a nation like USA , there was a top-earning class of around 10% of population and a "left-over" of about 18% , the crisis is inflating one category and shrinking the other ...

with an effect which has NOTHING to do with morality , democracy or merits :

the one at the top become richer , the middle class get the whole punch , a big chunck of it going to poverty status or something very close to it ...
(at same time , i have to remind you what is a "proletarian" ? someone not making enough money to pay for anything else than primary needs : WHY did americans accumulated so many credits and debts ? living on too high standards compared to earning ? or simply "New age proletarian" ?)

so when i read "peoples loosing home made a decision , they played the game and have lost" ... your conclusion seems to be
"better luck Next Time" ...

but next time IS going to carry all the problems and debts of yesterday ...

so it will be like conquering a new territory ... but this new land is already full of everything which has no intentions of clearing space !

so please , refrain from "Playing" cynical !

life conditions in USA are set to go down , how much down ? that is the question !

last time , the WW2 was just on time to help the mechanism starting over ... then the $ supremacy came ...

nowadays , war is too unpopular and too costly ...and $ is nearly gone ...

what is left ?

IF $ become useless , who is going to pick tomatoes ? sancho & juanita from Mexico ? or bill and sam from texas because they have kids to feed?

and the final buyer : is he going to accept to pay Tomatoes 5 times more to help Bill&Sam to get a decent earning ?

if this buyer is you , answer is NO WAY !

so you see poverty is one thing , the way to fight it is NOT policies ... not only ... but as well a kind of comportment for everybody !

BTW : "chief is the chief" isn't it an effect of what is called "Democracy" ????

fred said...

just a last one before every reader fall asleep
What is wrong in Wall-Street =

Normally , stock-markets are meant as a financing-oriented tool for firms , so instead of turning to credit-market , firms can ask investors for assets or cash against a "slice" of the said firm and a portion of benefits ...

so , still in an ideal situation , investors are supposed to know a few things :
* What the firm is doing , what kind of product is made
*What is the market
*What is the way the firm is managed
*What is the financial situation of the firm

that's a way of mind which belongs to the past , unfortunately !

WE are in the era of "IF fast isn't quick enough , do faster"

so why care about what product , market or CEO is at top ...

stocks are not meant anymore as something you keep to collect dividends yearly , go to assembly , change or decide the way a firm is managed ...

Internet-Bubble has completely perveted the system , very well helped in that by all the monkeys of Wall-Street for (primarly) their own advantage ...

NOW , stocks are something you buy in the morning , sell in the afternoon , and please do not ask what was made by the firm i bought last week !

the problem ?

now tradings are made by computer and expert-programs , normal anybody doesn't stand a chance compare to those machines ...
they can change the way the market react , even before you can only read what is going on , let apart make a decision based on anything else than gutts ...

have you seen that all new firms are crying to go IPO ?

a firm shouldn't see this as anything else than a risk , if not doing it with a really very good back-up plan and a very strong desire of development ...

the result is that most want to go IPO because they will become rich overnight ... exactly what Vern-the-Great promised to the ones sweating blood to keep the firm going ...

you see why now , Wall-Street being a way of sizing the potential of the REAL economy is as dumb as the reasons invoked to invade Iraq ...

i say it again , soon there will be a revenge of the doers on the sayers ... the ones with a technical knowledge of MAKING things will be put back in the place they should never have left ...
the finance peoples will go back to where they belongs , like any "thin air movers"

ok , i stop here , go back to sailing activities , greetings to all , keep your eyes open and remain safe !

Deep Blue said...

Gad said:

"But in real life, knowledge and wisdom . . . it all takes time, understanding, etc. . . . and the “tools”, whether the “scraper”, mentioned above, or the expensive computerized machines, and all the hardware/software to support it, requires the human mind, and wisdom to apply it. There are no shortcuts. It takes a craftsman, a product, and sharp/ready tools, to bring the two together.

Machines and computers and software are simply “tools” . . . links, if you will, between a skilled mind and an end product. There’s no free lunch."

Very nice, Gad. And even a step (or more) removed is usually "management." Just look at Boeing and its Board. And of course the political class. Most could use a tech school background rather than law degrees.

There was a great story in the press recently about famed aerospace engineer Richard Whitcomb who among other discoveries helped perfect the supersonic airframe design (so-called coke bottle effect).

What a guy: slept on a cot by his drafting desk; noodling around shapes and designs by hand all day and night.

EclipsePilotOMSIV said...

Looks like Eclipse is working with FAA to fix "shelf life" problem... Only a few cycles left until approved.

Orville said...

Gad - put down the tools, and write a book.

Fabulous stuff!

airsafetyman said...

"Most could use a tech school background rather than law degrees."

Or the all time disaster: the Harvard MBA degree-holder. Boeing has one (enough said). Tiny little on-its-deathbed Piper even has one - a clown who cratered his first company when aviation was going great guns.

gadfly said...

Orville and Deep Blue

Heady stuff . . . your comments. But let’s just consider what we know. Most of our education never came from sitting in class, nor going to some high-falutin’ school, but from the everyday experiences of life, and from the people that we respect and subjects that we loved. And that implies that we didn’t get it by reading a book.

Rather than “write a book” (which I would be more than willing to do, since I enjoy writing, and the subject is worthy of at least a simple paperback), let’s look at this in . . . say three sections, because of the limit on the number of words for a blogsite comment . . . and I don’t really know where this will lead.

Last time, as I recall, we were discussing skill, wisdom, human ability . . . that sort of thing, with the “tools” simply being a link, a connection, between “mind” and “final product”, no matter how fancy, or simple the tool.

And to preface the discussion, I’ll relate a simple story:

Once upon a time, I designed and built some machines for Honeywell, for manufacturing/calibrating thermostats and various energy control panels for home and commercial applications . . . including those cute little panels you purchase for home heating/air conditioning, etc. Honeywell came to me, requesting a new quote for three new machines . . . the original had been in continuous service for thirteen years, without even basic maintenance, and they decided they wanted three more. So I gave them a price. That was fine, but they said that I must submit complete drawings, etc., along with the quote. Well, having an IQ somewhat north of a ripe carrot, I decided that something was fishy . . . and said “No!”. They were satisfied enough with my first design, so, why the requirement for complete drawings, plans, etc., after thirteen years of service, forty hours each week?

('Guess I shouldn't be surprised . . . a century ago, Grandpa put a ten year guarantee on his engines . . . and we simply removed the ten-year limitation on our products, allowing the customer to decide "what's fair".)

The answer was forthcoming . . . as Honeywell packed up and left “Bluewater Road” in Albuquerque, for some town in China. I’m sure they eventually “reverse engineered” my machine, but at least I didn’t deliberately contribute to the loss of the design. You see, there are subtle little things, that only I know, within that design, that can be easily passed on to another manufacturer . . . or the next machinist, who must now wrestle with problems, “cold turkey” (as they say), etc.

But the bottom line is that there were things within that machine, and a complete family of related machines (and I designed/built many), that cannot be transferred to others, simply by copying a “CAD” file, or a drawing. Buried in those designs are a life time . . . no, make that at least three generations of skill . . . inventive, machining, design, etc., that a Harvard business school graduate cannot begin to comprehend.

gadfly

(. . . to be continued!)

Floating Cloud said...

From a curator's point of view there is no innovation without craftsmanship, unless something is meant to be ephemeral in the first place.

I'm with you Gadfly.

Floating Cloud

gadfly said...

Orville and Deep Blue . . . and the others,

“A commodity is some good for which there is demand, but which is supplied without qualitative differentiation across a market.”

Now, this definition should cause you to stop and give careful consideration to the depth and height of all you know about the free enterprise system. If you don’t get this concept, you better turn in your badge and check out right now. And why is this important? Because we have a “pile” of politicians, and experts . . . including those with degrees from Harvard business school, and the lawyers across the way, who have the miss-conception that the economy of the US of A is basically a “commodity”.

Did you get that? . . . The present erroneous thinking is that our entire system is a commodity! It isn’t! It’s a living thing, like an organism. When it stops living, it’s over . . . and will not be revived.

In the present, we think of knowledge, and accurate information being dependent on binary codes, etc., . . . transferring bits from one medium to another, looking for parity errors . . . all that sort of thing that is taken for granted, operating behind the scenes each and every time we “de-frag” the hard drives on our computer, or transfer data over the internet.

In the world of free enterprise, which includes machining, designing, electronics, electrical engineering, optics, molding, casting, stamping, kinematics, electro-mechanical devices, hydraulics, fluid flow, and countless other areas of practical engineering . . . there are subtle nuances than even the “pre-Rafael” artists, or Impressionists of a past century could not imagine. For instance, can you possibly imagine a computer, or bureaucrat composing something like Anton Dvorak ("Symphony from the New World")? . . . or “Cesar Franck”? Compare a piece of classical music to the mechanism of a front-wheel drive transmission, with constant-velocity couplings . . . and you’ll appreciate the “art forms” common to both. As an artist instinctively selects the proper pigment for a painting, and the musical genius selects the right instrument to express his picture in sound, even so the mechanical inventor selects the right alloy, the best contour, the most efficient position . . . to compromise with many requirements of speed, torque, angles, operating life . . . and countless other possibilities/probabilities . . . things learned and felt over decades . . . often in the deep of night. While others sleep the sleep of the innocent, inventors dream of problems and solutions. The comparison is accurate.

Our entire way of life, including the technology so hard won over centuries is not a commodity, but a living thing, much like an organism . . . once it dies, it does not come back. As each breath depends on the next, so is our technological base.

gadfly . . . to be continued (when and if I can think of the next thing).

(Floating Cloud . . . this "ephemeral" thing is what concerns me. "Ephemeral" means "lasting for only a day" . . . and in my book, I hope to design and manufacture things that last a bit longer. But we'll pick up the thought on the next "go-round". At least you're listening and thinking . . . 'that's a good sign!

And I admit, I struggle with four cylinder words that run on stuff from distilled corn squeezens. OK . . . it weren't funny, but it seemed like it at the moment.)

baron95 said...

More pain for L3/Avidyne...

PiperJet, HondaJet, will have Garmin 3000 flight decks. CirrusJet will have unspecified Garmin flightdeck.

It's looking like it will be Garmin all the way from the Husky/DA20 2 seaters to the Phenom 300/HondaJet light twin jets.

This is the closest we have even been to a de facto standard in GA flight decks.

And to think that 20 years ago no one even knew of Garmin.

This is nothing short of an "extinction of the dinosaurs" phenomenon.

Well done Garmin - keep on putting the screws on the legacy makers.

I think the GA engine/airframe legacies are just as exposed as the GA avionics legacies proved to be.

Shane Price said...

Baron,

I think the GA engine/airframe legacies are just as exposed as the GA avionics legacies proved to be.

Excellent observation. Just as the Japanese (and later the Koreans) shook up the established 'automakers' (I'd normally write car companies, but I'm in a good mood today) I suspect that the Chinese will blow away a number of companies in GA.

Cessna have made a strategic error in having the Skycatcher build in China, in my opinion.

You'll also note that the legals eagles have launched the first three actions against Vern and his merry men. Seems there are close to two hundred people who think they've a chance of recovering something from EACs' insurance company.

I wish them luck, as I'm pretty sure they'll need plenty of it to pin Mr. Raburn down...

After all, it took all of 'us' almost two years to nail him!

OK, that last sentence is a bit of a reach, but you know what I'm getting at.

Any idea what's going on at Boeing? Seems they've lost their almost spooky ability to deliver a big program in a timely and cost efficient manner.

If they keep reporting quarterly losses in the billion dollar range that will add up to serious money, PDQ.

Gad,

Art is at the centre of all great innovation. This is one of the reasons that many scientists don't 'get' God. They distrust anything that can't be defined in terms that they lay down.

Shane

airtaximan said...

"blind faith" is something that needs to be understood as such...

Either yu've seen or heard from God... or you rely on blind faith...

Either you've seen a plane, or you rely on blind faith when you write the check...

Its not hard for anyone to grasp, just need to get past thinking there "security" where there isn't.

A lot of "science" is blind faith as well... they just don't like to admit it.

airsafetyman said...

"I suspect that the Chinese will blow away a number of companies in GA...Cessna have made a strategic error in having the Skycatcher build in China, in my opinion."

It's interesting to note, however, that the Japanese
who are blowing eveyone away with luxury car brands, and who make quality military aircraft under liscense, haven't done that well in the comercial aviation sector. Curious. Can the Chinese do better?

I agree that Cessna having Skycatcher made in China after throwing half their workforce down the stairwell gives me a sick feeling in my stomach.

baron95 said...

Shane!!!! Welcome back. A very nice, balanced and well reasoned post. You must have reclaimed your id from the poser.

Good points you raise.

I think it will be quite a while before the Chinese can take over GA or automakers, but I certainly welcome the competition.

If it is true that it takes 10,000 hrs+ to build a VLJ, like many here claim, than, they need to be built in China.

Deep Blue said...

ASM said:

"I agree that Cessna having Skycatcher made in China after throwing half their workforce down the stairwell gives me a sick feeling in my stomach."

Indeed. But what else is new with US management (and investors)?

Gad:

You really should write a book. Seriously. You're a natural, you've got heart, experience, wisdom and can entertain and you've already tested out the market here (and just think, B95 could give an endorsement...!). Having written 2 books myself, I know a thing or two about this.

You could collect all of your writings from the Blog over the past + year and that would get you at least 30,000+ words; you need about 70K for a book. You're already there!

As Nike says, "Just do it."

Deep Blue said...

..and I almost forgot; Shane could print it; Whytech could VC fund some and Gunner could distribute and promote. Fred and Julius could translate for the EU markets (and Middle East. Done.

gadfly said...

Deep Blue . . . if you believe that flattery will get you somewhere . . . well, you’re right. But at my age, there is just so much time for an entire list of things yet to do before I move on to another permanent city, that for now, like Abraham of old, I see from afar. Although I still buy “green bananas”, and put in a full tank of gasoline, the list of priorities remains rather full. For instance, my “kids” are now all clamoring for my watercolor paintings (and, to be honest, I’m rather good at it . . . even portraits, especially portraits) . . . and as a “professional artist” (choke), my youngest daughter still owes me close to a dollar for the first four. And then there’s completing the house plans, and getting the Santa Fe County permits, and when to start moving ground with an 80,000 pound "skip loader" from the gravel operation across the road (it's good to have friends) . . . and install the pump in the well (we plan to go "solar backup"), pouring concrete for the basement. (At least the well is dug . . . and at 30 gallons per minute ain't too shabby on a mountain, and the power is in . . . 240VAC at 200 amps.) (Yep, it's strange what gets me excited.)

Besides . . . in which section would you expect to find “my book”, “Friction”?, or “Non-friction”?

For now, I’ll stick to the subject of which I was speaking earlier . . . investing in the next generation . . . training young (and older) minds in things that truly count. ‘Things that cannot be learned in a book, or from the theoretical thinking of a college professor, but from the dirty-fingernail world that can only be passed down from one living person to another living person.

And back to the original discussion, the technologies of the nation must be transferred in this way. The books, the professors, the formal education is still extremely important, but like the machine . . . they are only tools. Only by careful “one-on-one” training . . . the grouchy old tool maker working with the young apprentice . . . over and over and over . . . until slowly, the young apprentice finally has a “feel” for those subtle vibrations of “cutting tool” biting into a piece of aluminum, or a piece of 400 series CRES . . . even the smell of the burning oil coming off the carbide endmill. We could apply the same thinking to general aviation . . . especially, with the Eclipse fiasco so fresh in our minds.

Those are the things they don’t teach at Harvard business school . . . when a bean counter can convince a board of directors to transfer manufacturing to China. Once it’s gone, the chain of learning is lost . . . probably forever. The Chinese are smart . . . their quality has improved greatly in just a couple decades, and they’re eager to do what we did, a century earlier. And our “bean counters” are giving them a boost . . . giving them “almost a free lunch”, the things that cost our ancestors much blood, sweat and tears to learn. Who can blame the Chinese? . . . I certainly don’t.

But in the mean time, even the Chinese are concerned . . . as our nation throws away our “means of support”, and the very market that supplies the Chinese with needed income.

Well, I’ve said my piece on the subject. And I can hardly wait to read my “sequel”.

gadfly

(The other day I read something in the “funnies”, the only part of the newspaper I ever read: The character had consulted a genealogist about his family tree . . . and he was told that basically it was full of squirrels. In my case, it’s full of “nuts”.)

gadfly said...

An anecdote or two about a particular Chinese friend of highest regard . . . the definition says it means an “incident” . . . some would call it an “accident” . . . whatever, my experience with this Chinese neurosurgeon came about almost as an “accident”, with many “incidents”, . . . you judge:

Dr. Zhu is a neurosurgeon of the highest caliber. I met “Yong” at the very beginning, "Zhu Yong Hua", when I was asked to make tools for micro-surgery, and I said I could (without the slightest idea to what I had just agreed). Well, within a week working with Dr. Zhu, and another neurosurgeon (I had proposed my invention within hours of our first meeting, being told it was impossible), and the three of us soon found ourselves working on “rats”, attaching femoral arteries the size of pencil leads, one millimeter in diameter, with clips the size of the jaws of small ants, made of pure (0.9999) silver in our little shop.

Dr. Zhu came from “Mainland China” . . . Shanghai. His family had served time in prison for simply being “well educated” . . . nothing more. In time Dr. Zhu applied for American citizenship . . . and now lives in Southern California, as a successful capitalist. (The “US” surgical world never accepted him fully as a neurosurgeon, although I can attest that if I ever had to have neurosurgery, or on a member of my own family, he would be my first choice . . . skilled beyond belief. Once, using our micro-clips, he attached a 0.3 millimeter (.o12 inch) diameter femoral artery . . . a “world’s record”. And what a gentle man.)

Since he had residence in Albuquerque, and moved to Southern California . . . and required a single residence for a year, we took him onto our payroll, to maintain his primary residence in Albuquerque. So, I think it’s safe to say that our little shop is the only machine shop in the USA, maybe the world, that at one time had a full-time neurosurgeon “on staff”.

Dr. Zhu believed the best in people. While shopping across the street from the University of New Mexico (which includes the medical school and hospital) in a small “all night” convenience store, someone approached him with a long knife . . . and what with the language barrier, the good doctor thought the man was attempting to sell him this wonderful piece of polished steel. In frustration, the potential sale went “south”, and the would-be late-night salesman left in frustration.

In those early days, when the good doctor was not yet free from his Chinese citizenship, some high officials came to visit . . . using him, as it were, to visit the famous facility north of Albuquerque, known as the birthplace of nuclear weapons, “Los Alamos Scientific Laboratories”. At the end of a long day, traveling up to the museum (open to the public), the entourage returned late to Albuquerque. Wishing to take back to their nation some mementoes, asked Dr. Zhu to assist them to obtain/purchase books on the “Ultimate Bomb”. The hour was late . . . most stores were closed, including most book stores. But since the subject was an “adult subject” (certainly not something for children), the search produced results in a late-night adult book store, directly across from the campus of the University of New Mexico. Upon their careful request to the proprietor, for books on the “ultimate bomb”, their request was adequately fulfilled . . . but strangely, never once mentioned “nuclear fission”, nor even “nuclear fusion”, for that matter. There was much “confusion”, and Confucius would not have been amused. Nor were the high officials from the “People’s Republic of China”.

To this day, for whatever reason, Dr. Zhu (“Yong”), does not like anyone to remember this incident . . . please don’t say a word. But every time I remember that day, I get a good “belly laugh” exercise. (Sorry, Yong, but you owe me one . . . and that qualifies as good as any.)

gadfly

julius said...

baron95,

More pain for L3/Avidyne...


what's really new with the Garmin 1000 sorry 3000?
They just changed the menues and the data entry - not with mechanical knobs or the alphanumeric pad (finally requested by customers)?
What about the innards - e. g. network reset, fail safe, reduced power consumption, recovery function like Cirrus...
Is the Garmin 3000 basically a slightly improved Garmin 1000?

I couldn't find any info's at Garmin's site.

Julius

P.S.: Does Boeing already know why the calculations of the model varied so much from the results of the static test(s)?

Shadow said...

Julius,

I went to see the G3000 on display at NBAA. The big change is the CDU (control display unit) in that it's a touch screen CDU. There are a few new menu selections, but nothing really earth shattering. AIN has a good story on the G3000.

julius said...

Shadow,

thank you!

It's well known, that it's harder to coordinate a cursor than one's fingers on a screen!
If one looks at Garmin's other products then the introduction of a touch screen is not a surprise.

Me think L3 etc. aren't pushing Garmin...

Julius

gadfly said...

Julius

Thanks for bringing us back to reality . . . “Boeing”, et al. And for the record, and to re-enforce some things I have said of late, well meaning engineers of this modern age, whether at Boeing, or any other institution, more often than not, believe that the “computer” trumps all . . . and fails terribly to recognize that the computer, like the aircraft/airframe they attempt to build, is subject to the combined knowledge of the “college graduates”, AND the many technicians, the machinists, the assemblers of all those tens of thousands of aircraft . . . some good, some bad . . . that preceded the algorithms of their wonderful CAD/CAE/CAM programs.

If I had to sum up a single comment or two, a “word or two”, of the present problems at Boeing, or any other major entity, it would include the words “pride” and “laziness”. Pride, because when a person puts all the chips on a college education, there is no room for the practical . . . the time needed in working at the lowest levels . . . even cleaning behind toilets, in a machine shop, etc. And laziness, for thinking, like those that avoided serving in the armies during the “Civil War” (which, agreed, was not civil at all), that by buying a replacement, or in modern times, an “education”, the real work, education, experience of the great unwashed could be avoided.

Back to Boeing (almost sounds poetic) . . . these folks are the product of “modern thinking”, which is “no thinking at all”. There are obvious problems, which we have addressed “ad nauseum” in the past . . . and the simple understanding of a “ship wright” of the nineteenth century would have caught it in an instant. But I repeat myself. (Often, I pick up a book on the way to the “porcelain throne”, for entertainment, and to not waste [pardon the pun] valuable time . . . and read historical things . . . things about the ships that served the west coast of Canada and Washington a century ago . . . and think, didn’t I just see that in the news on the internet? . . . But I digress!)

Unless, and until Boeing gets their rear end in gear, and returns to practical engineering, allowing common sense to trump computer models, they’re in far bigger trouble than they realize. Some of my closest friends, ex-Boeing employees . . . (even one of my uncles worked as an engineer for Boeing long ago from the late 1930's, and retired from United . . . too much to explain just now, the history of the “two”) . . . until these engineers admit to stupidity in the most basic realities of airframe structural facts, they are in the biggest troubles of their entire existence.

Eclipse was a tempest in a teapot compared to what Boeing may be about to experience.

gadfly

(If I were to offer advice to the younger generation, I would encourage technical schools over college . . . get in there, work at any/every level, learn all you can, do your very best . . . even if you have nothing to do but clean up after others, and buy up your time, learning on your own . . . and if you can afford more, go to school at every opportunity. There’s no guarantee, but you’ll never know if you don’t apply every God given talent you have.)

(Am I the only one that still finds an "optical mouse" easier to use than the little "joy stick" in the middle of a laptop keyboard, or those little finger pads? Even the "Wacom" stylist is sometimes a pain. Here's an opportunity for someone to design/invent a better user input device. The mouse was great . . . now get with it, someone, and come up with a better user interface device.)

RonRoe said...

The lawsuit against Vern and company brings up an interesting point.

The Directors and Officers (D & O) insurance policy does not cover fraud. If the offense rises to that level, then the insurance company does not have to pay.

This creates a dilemma for the attorneys. The plaintiffs have to prove that Eclipse et al misbehaved badly enough for it to be actionable, but not too badly, or it would be fraud.

What about the insurance company's attorneys? Would their defense be to try to raise it to the level of outright fraud?

As Alice said, "Curiouser and curiouser."

baron95 said...

Julius, you are missing the point with Garmin.

Two things.

1 - Continuous improvement.

2 - Filling every niche.

In the meantime congratulations to the PROFESSIONAL ALPA Union crew of the Northwest flight who decided to argue over union seniority rules and overshot the destination ariport a little bit - by 150 miles and were no responsive to the FAA ATC.

And for that, acording to union contract rules, they were simply suspended with pay.

Aren't unions great for America?

Shadow said...

Forgot to mention that I caught a glimpse of Vern at NBAA. I didn't get a chance to stop and talk to him, though. Last year at NBAA he was talking about nuclear power and such. Not sure what he had to say this year.

baron95 said...

Julius...more time to respond...

To understand how truly dominant Garmin has become, look at the Piper Meridian on this month's Flying Magazine article that Piper has been showing around NBAA, etc.

What does it have on huge type all over the fuselage? Not "Piper", not "Meridian", not "PWC Turbine".

But simply....

G 1 0 0 0

When Beech added the G1000 to the Baron/Bonanza, they went from A/B36 and B58 straight to G36 and G38.

That is power. It is dominance. It is displacement.

Garmin became to Airframers what Windows and Office is the PC manufacturers.

Now....on to the G3000...

The beauty Julius, is that it is a virtually 100% Software/Parameter based architecture. The screens are now interchangeable, reversionary dumb displays (like on the Eclipse) - they are also huge 14" landscape.

Soft, context sensitive control is now on the touch screen control units. It makes it easy to customize for different aircraft.

There is now parametric processing power to control render A/P, ship's electrical, gear, anti-ice, pressurization systems.

I.e. the G3000 is the Avio concept, realized. Or very close to it.

AND

Here is the kicker....

I have a hunch...and it is just a hunch...

That Garmin will certify this for Part 25.

If they do, they'll bring a new level of competition and pain to the big boys of avionics beyond part 23.

I hope they do = but in due time. Crawl, walk, run.

In due time, you may see "G 1 0 0 0" in big type on the side of a Gulfstream ;)

You can laugh now, like Bendix King laughed when Garmin showed their prototypes in 1990.

baron95 said...

Meant "G 3 0 0 0" or "G 5 0 0 0" on the side of the Gulfstream.

julius said...

Gadfly,

my impression is, that some people already believe a new a/c flies like it "does" in the sim...
They sit in the sim and fly!
Perhaps I#m not up to date:
How good are these models? Are they already perfect for the normal flight envelope of a 787?

Boeing declares it's 787 a revolutionary product. The same is true for the way Boeing is producing it. There are no full scale tests to verify these new models. Are "hot spots" tackled when there is no way to circumvent them - the wing must be connected with fuselage, so bad!

Julius

julius said...

baron95,

did anyone say Garmin is stupid?

They do it quite slowly - in terms of real innovations. Anyhow they do it in an acceptable manner!
Why shouldn't they tackle the "big" ones if they tackle the "niche" markets! Rockwell...

The "default" is contained in the 1000 - but Embraer added the alerting, Cirus the recovery button....

What are the new features of the 3000 or are they just copying IBM of 60th to 80th?


Julius

Shane Price said...

Shadow,

I note you 'spotted' Vern at NBAA.

Was he still sporting the beard he grew for last years show?

Baron,

Its' pretty much been 'me', almost without exception. My point about Cessna was an alert, not a commendation. Especially as some of the stuff that comes out of Chinese factories does so without royalty payments to the IP owners.

Julius,

Garmin have expanded way beyond GA, as you fully understand. What's interesting about the 3000 is how they've folded some now pretty standard GUI thinking back into the cockpit. The biggest jump with the 3000 is therefore the philosophy behind the touch screen, not the gadget itself. Look at how good OS designs anticipate needs before you even knew you had one...

RonRoe,

There are three suits, at time of writing. Vern is the chief target, although there are others. Remember, those who've started these actions are a very select group, but they share a few notable attributes:-

1. They all have money to fund lawyers, although probably less that they had before they put their faith in Vern Raburn.

2. They're pissed at being made fools of.

As it happens, I pretty familiar with what happens when you piss off rich people. They don't normally just get mad, they tend to try to get even.

Another outcome of EAC, as predicted on our blog(s). The lawyers get richer....

Shane

Shane Price said...

Another airtaxi bites the dust, or so it seems.

The good people at AVweb are reporting that SATSair have ceased operations.

Looks like there might be 'good value' in used Cirrus aircraft shortly...

Shane

baron95 said...

And not to be outdone by their Northwest union brothers, Delta (who merged with NW) pilots decided to land a 767-400 at the nation's busiest airport (Delta's hub) on a taxiway.

I guess in an effort to show that they are more productive than the 70-hr/month NW pilots, the 68-hr/month Delta pilots decided to land a bit closer to the terminal.

Given that the flight was coming from Rio de Janeiro, maybe they were partying too much the night before.

P.S. There are no allegations that these "professional pilots" send Shane any email.

gadfly said...

Julius

In a “perfect” (ie: computer) world, Boeing would have few problems. But there are still a few unknown/uncontrollables . . . humans and little things like the weather.

Of all my education, I remember aeronautical meteorology as being one of my favorites. And I learned one thing above all else, there is no computer model, ever, that can handle the variables.

And, of course, the other is the human factor: Put ten carefully trained people to a specific task, and there will be at least eleven different ways of doing that task on any given day . . . even changing by the hour.

Boeing has not yet solved those two issues, no matter how fine their computerized (CAD/CAE/CAM) systems . . . and those are only two of the more obvious issues.

gadfly

(On certain projects in my recent past, we were dealing with metrology and precision laser feedback, attempting to control the positions of computerized robots in a large building, in which the radar absorbing paint is applied to stealth aircraft . . . a most daunting task. Throughout the day, the building was constantly changing shape and dimensions, which in turn changed the positions of various parts of the aircraft enough to affect the critical thickness of the painted surfaces.)

julius said...

Shane,

that's right - as long as L3, Avidyne etc. do not make a leap Garmin has much time to look and to develop something.
Furthermore Garmin may "test" their systems or concepts in a lot different environments (car, marine, outdoor).
I think it's a question of time when Garmin will "attack" the Rockwell or Honeywell and also Thales, Goodyear (sensors).


Julius

julius said...

Gadfly,

In a “perfect” (ie: computer) world, Boeing would have few problems.


Perfect world and computer, isn't that an intrinsic contradiction?
Computer means reduction perhaps like mp3 of what "we" can hear!
Whales or a bats hear what we cannot hear!

The world is just the world because of all it's nuances.

I think the model based calculation of a clean flying 777 in calm air with soft control and soft cg (in normal range) changes should be possible with minor errors compared to the reality.

But more - I do not know!!!
The usage of models in wind tunnels only indicates that some
nearly real world tests are still necessary!

Boeing seems to be very special: The engeneers design and test something (A) in non-real world scale. After someone a accepts the results they leave the drawing board. Only if A doesn't work in full scale they will retun to the drawing boards...In case of the 787 that might be a good approach - otherwise e.g. the software engeneers for the flight systems might have created revision 3 or higher. But in case of a major concerns ... shades of Hubble?

Julius

KnotMPH said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
gadfly said...

julius

The “perfect” world of the present generation of engineers seems to be of computers . . . where all things are defined by bits and bytes, and only the ancient world depended on the “analog” mind, for input of sight and sound. ‘Had the present generation of engineers been required to spend time working in a machine or wood shop, or had thoroughly studied “CAM 18", and built a section of fabric covered wing, or performed a “ten-to-one” spar splice, I venture many of the “wing root” and “stringer” problems in the 787 would not exist, today. You ask, “what’s the connection?” . . . CAM 18 was for wood and simple aircraft. But here we are . . . dealing with the “carbon fiber” equivalent of “wood”, and there is more in common than differences..

gadfly

(Mentioned before was a “casket” factory, given the job of making parts for the Waco gliders of WWII . . . and those parts failed in use, because there was little or no understanding of the vastly different requirements and understanding in building an airframe. Both factories worked with wood, but the one understood the stresses of actual flight, etc., while the other only understood keeping wood together in compression.)

Floating Cloud said...

Dear KnotMPH:

I am so copying your post to my dearest American friend who has lived in London for 20 plus yrs and whom, while visiting last April, said, my checking into this EAC (then NG) blog everyday was being obsessive. Your description of Heathrow and LAX is way too funny!

And to the deadly English electrical current -- my friend in South Kensington has a contraband hairdryer that as she put it, if you get it ANY Where near a drop of water you will be dead.

Hair dryers are illegal in London which would amount to everyone having bad hair all the time -- not to mention the toil of UK weather.

And as to your wish on earth for entities to be coordinated and working as one for the larger scheme of things -- if only, and why not? Should be humankind's greatest mission in life. (And that is NOT a socialist commentary.) I also wish I had an air taxi to take me away -- with a Calgon bath in the back...)

Floating Cloud

gadfly said...

Phil . . . a moment or two for some entertainment.

Sometime back during the discussion of fiber reenforced composites, you made a comment about liking “honeycomb” structures. At the time, I wanted to comment, but there were other things . . . but it remained in the back of my mind to address it later.

The “honeycomb” of the bee is a marvelous example of the near perfect design, a single structure that achieves at least three or four primary functions, without serious compromise. The features of the true “honeycomb” must with the simplest of materials (although extremely precise in physical characteristics) achieve a storage of the developing bee, the storage of “honey”(without contamination), and home for the colony or swarm.

Notice that the six flat sides of each cell are a perfect fit for the “young”, while sharing adjacent walls with other cells (a “cylinder” would waste much material, without merit). The material itself is not subject to rot or decay . . . I have “beeswax” in my toolbox for pattern-making that is a century old, and as good as the day it was made by the bees. The “wax” melts easily at a precise temperature, within the upper limits that bees can maintain in the hive. The base of the cells, like the side-walls, perfectly share the base of the cells in the apposing layers. And the base angle of the facets for an angle of slightly under 109.5 degrees, again a most efficient use of material for maximum strength, and internal volume.

When “man” borrows the geometry for separation of two surfaces, the “hex” shape is not the best, since the purpose is not the same. Better shapes are most often “sinusoidal” rows, with straight webs between. When manufacturing large panels for 150 foot diameter domes, our cell size was 4 inch pitch, 2.625 separation, between rows, and 3.5 inch in height. It worked great.

gadfly

(An interesting incident: My cousin and I as teenagers were given half the contents of a broken-down bee hive, if we would remove it, and the bees. We set to work, with a “smoker”, to make the bees less harmful. We were successful. My cousin, Dave, had on “coveralls”, socks, shoes, an old felt hat, and netting covering his face. I was dressed in a pair of “jeans”, a short-sleeve tee shirt, bare feet, and a felt hat. Dave received ten stings from bees that got inside his clothing, and panicked attempting to crawl out. I receive two stings. A little mud on the stings and all was well. Never in my life did honey taste so good.)

julius said...

Floating Cloud,

250V are dangerous - yes! But with some respect, good lines, right fuses and ground fault circuit interrupters, there are no real problems unless you want to dry your hair while having a nice bath (just to save time!). The hair dryer might get wet and I do not trust the ground fault circuit interrupters!

Julius
P.S.: In Germany there are only 220V and 350V for the electric ovens.

Phil Bell said...

Gadfly,
I'm very glad Shane is writing a book, chronicling the Eclipse story.
I'm more and more convinced, that you too need to write a book- I'm continually amazed at the technological innovations you've been involved with! (Seriously- please consider it!)

Phil Bell said...

New headline post is up!