Monday, October 19, 2009
Honeywell released their eighteenth annual business aviation outlook this week, coincident with the NBAA convention in Orlando FL (Oct 20-22). The chart shows their overall forecast of the biz jet deliveries for the next 10 years. Next year is forecast to be about 10 percent slower than this year.
In the "glass half full" department, if one considers that most 2009 deliveries occurred in the first half of this year, then perhaps it is correct to infer that the current delivery rates represent the bottom of the production rate forecast.
(In the "glass half empty" department, the forecast shows strong sales for the nine years after 2010; some earlier review of the past five business cycles suggests that their is about an eight year period, which would have a downward trend resuming in 2019 or so. Maybe globalization, etc. will keep it from happening in 2019. Then again, it was supposed to keep it from happening this time too...).
Jack Pelton, Cessna's CEO, had some words of cautious optimism. Pelton commented "the international markets seem less frozen than our domestic market right now, particularly Western Europe and South America" (indeed as our friend Baron noted on his recent visit to Brazil).
China is stimulating the business jet market somewhat as well, relaxing domestic flight plan filing to three hours, and reducing tariffs.
In the cool news department, Garmin unveiled their G3000 suite, for "light turbine" aircraft. (Still a couple years away from deployment).
In other cool news, Learjet has their in-development model 85 mockup on display there too, with it's revised flight deck.
It will be interesting to hear what visitors to the NBAA show have to say regarding attendance and displays- please drop a line or make a post to update us!