Sunday, September 27, 2009

Not to Beat a Dead Horse...



State of the Biz Av Economy, Part 4 of 3 (or something like that!)

In this concluding (I promise!) examination of the aviation business climate, I thought I'd summarize with some articles from significant observers/participants in the industry, following our review of Molly McMillin's Wichita Eagle article from last week.

(Partly prompted by Friday's sad news of another 240 job cuts at HawkerBeech; "Friday's WARN notices put the number of layoffs at HBC in the past 10 months at 3,553, or about 36 percent of last October's total work force."

Aviation Week reviewed the GA market in their Aug 10 article "GA Shipments Continue Downward Spiral". ("The second quarter of 2009 further compounded the economic woes of the general aviation manufacturing sector as the number of deliveries plunged some 49 percent, according to statistics released last week by the General Aviation Manufacturers Association. This has led to a 45.9 percent decline in total deliveries through the first half of the year.")

The Aviation Week Intelligence Network had coverage (Sept 23) of Wichita Suffers From Bizjet Downturn. "A severe downturn in the aviation industry has led to the loss of 30,000 jobs in Wichita as the impact from mass layoffs at companies such as Cessna, Hawker Beechcraft and Bombardier Learjet has rippled through small suppliers and the economy, according to Mayor Carl Brewer."

Our friend Richard Aboulafia, of the Teal Group, recently had an EXCELLENT two-part expose' of the state of affairs-

TEAL GROUP BIZAV OVERVIEW (PART 1)
("Our forecast assumes a three-year downturn. The key demand drivers – economic growth and corporate profits – will only recover in late 2010. It will take some time to reduce record inventories of available jets for sale. This means new business jet deliveries won’t start to recover until 2012. The trough year of our forecast – 2011 – will see business jet deliveries reduced by 40% relative to 2008. Our forecast then calls for a five-year recovery period with 10% growth per year starting in 2012.")

TEAL GROUP BUSINESS AVIATION OVERVIEW (PART 2) ("A closer look at the driving factors.")

Chad Trautvetter had a nice Sept piece in Aviation International News (AIN), which captures a quote many will be relieved to hear
UBS: Bizjet Market ‘Less Worse, Not Better’


But, as a note of caution, I will refresh our memories with Honeywell's Oct 2008 outlook (sorry, somebody there is cringing, or worse):
"The 2008 survey indicates record aircraft deliveries will continue into 2009 with a likely peak next year or in 2010...The stability in overall purchase expectations is supported by the increasingly global nature of the industry."

(Ah yes, I remember that widely repeated refrain- something like "the global demand for biz jets will damp out the US cyclical demand". Boy, that's so obviously erroneous in hindsight- but at the time, .I have to admit, it sounded reasonable to me too...).

To add insult to injury, or rather, injury to insult, Honeywell did not only not see their customer's market declining, they didn't even see their own market declining. From July 27, 2009: "Honeywell 2nd-Qtr earnings drop 38 percent as recession continues to take toll" (Oops. It will be interesting to see what the "18th Business Aviation Outlook" forecast says- should be out in a few weeks).

Bombardier has an aviation business forecast too, good reading,
Bombardier Business Aircraft Forecast 2009-2018

"Bombardier remains confident that there is strong
potential for the business jet industry over the next 10 years."
.

(A bit understated, not nearly as disruptive as some forecasts we've heard in the past... :)

Let's hope for our friends in the industry, that better times are coming soon...

78 comments:

Phil Bell said...

Lots of good information on the web-

I especially encourage everyone to take the time to read Richard Aboulafia's two-part article, and st least skim the Bombardier forecast.

Best wishes to all- this is meant to be informative and helpful explanation of what's going on.

I hope soon, "what's going on" will involve a larger dose of positive news. But while we can't control WHAT is going on, sometimes it makes it a bit less annoying if we can understand WHY it's going on. (That's my intention anyway).

julius said...

Phil,

you produced a nice overview of reports about the GA future!

Just one comment to
"Companies with Bizcraft Outperform Those Without" (AIN 2009-09-24). At the first glance this conclusion reminds me to an old example of bad statistics:
"The number of White Storks were correlated to the number of babies in pre-war eastern Germany".
The White Stork is an indicator for wet, sound environment not for heavily mechanised agro industrial managed environments.
Obviously, the number of babies were correlated to the lower education and less favourable economic situation of the people...

The ownership of an aircraft is only an indicator of wealth (GM, Ford, Chrysler?!)!!

The intelligent usage of the tool "a/c" might be the economic difference. The a/c is not only used by the top brass, but most times for important material transports or by "workers" to project sites or customers which might result in bigger success!.
Telco's or video conferences are less time consuming but cannot the replace direct human contacts.

Julius

eclipse_deep_throat said...

Good post Phil...

I would add that what we are witnessing is more like a 'perfect storm' of bad stuff. We have:

1. The fecal matter hitting the fan in the GA world.

2. Production **and** demand constraints in the commercial aviation biz (Boeing, Airbus). One is due to the mess with the B787, but the other has more to do with the lack of profits in the airline sector, meaning that we will have more supply than demand as a permanent feature of this biz.

3. And a likely reduction in demand for military/govt aviation and aerospace (NASA, F-22, etc.). As mentioned in the 9-28 Newsweek article on UAVs in the Air Force, "For the first time in history, the Air Force will train more joystick pilots than new fighter and bomber pilots." Rather, this is more of a transition from big-budget weapon systems to smaller, faster, cheaper methods to kill our enemies.

I think we can all see the pernicious consequences of disruptive technology combined with the lack of a real Evil Empire for our military to fight. Its almost funny to see that Reaganomics used supply-side economics and cheap credit to kill the consumer manufacturing biz, the middle class, and the defense contracting industries. LOL, he should have had them build only marginally better bombers / fighters etc., while at the same time artifically propping-up the Soviet Union (HA!) with capitalist dollars!!

Well, there is Iran and North Korea. Does anyone think our political leaders have the cojones to go to war with either NUCLEAR country? As if our military could handle another war in its current state. But all the 13yr old kiddies were fat and happy at Cottonwood Mall yesterday...

Things can only get stranger...
:-(

e.d.t.

Shane Price said...

E.D.T.

You might be on to something here....

"For the first time in history, the Air Force will train more joystick pilots than new fighter and bomber pilots."

Is this the 'future' for GA as well? Could there be Unpiloted Aerial Vehicles in our near term future, so that the average Joe who wanted to 'fly' did so without the tedium (and cost) of getting a pilots license?

Think about it.

- A four place all 'club cabin' with no flight controls available, with the possible exception of a ballistic parachute 'handle' for that genuine emergency.

- One (possibly jet) engine located without reference to a forward windscreen, for the very sound reason that there wouldn't need to be one. No pilot, remember...

- A standard, 'headless' set of controls (they're all on the ground) with no on board display. This has got to save a significant amount of weight, all to the benefit of payload/range.

The more I think about it, the more I like it.

Now, if I could only dig out Vern's phone number, I'd start taking deposits....

Shane

Dave said...

"For the first time in history, the Air Force will train more joystick pilots than new fighter and bomber pilots." Rather, this is more of a transition from big-budget weapon systems to smaller, faster, cheaper methods to kill our enemies.

I read about them and they seem pretty scary in how much like video games they are. The UAVs over Afghanistan are flown in the US by people who after they get done for their days work go back home. I think military pilots in general have a certain amount of detachment from what is going on at ground level, but with UAVs it takes detachment to a whole new level because the UAV pilots aren't even in the theater of combat. I can see this leading us to getting involved into lots of low intensity conflicts because there wont be any casualties on our side and these conflicts will just be viewed as an abstraction.

gadfly said...

The “gadfly” is still thinking back over the seemingly lack of understanding of the continuity of stresses, and tensioning fibers, required in the transition of going from “rivet/aluminum” construction . . . into the world of what God already created in the simple, yet complex requirements, to hold a three-thousand-year-old Sequoia pointed into the heavens for three millenia, and beyond.

Last evening, PBS had an ongoing series about the “national park system”, and underlying all that was the “greeny” stuff. But in all fairness, the protection of these magnificent examples of God’s creation cannot be underestimated. And, should you have missed it, there was a single example of one of those magnificent redwoods . . . with a “hole” cut through the base, to allow “tourists” to drive a car through a tree.

So, what’s the point? Had the engineers, the new crop of computer “genius” types, paid close attention, they would have noticed the remaining strength of that magnificent tree, deprived of the base trunk, yet remaining strong, with fibers holding a vertical trunk ever vertical, through countless seasons. And they would not have allowed a design of the 787 to allow a dis-continuity of “fiber” to occur between wing/wing root/fuselage.

The “gadfly” will make a prediction . . . that this “oversight” will come back to “bite” the design team, and spell future problems, over and over, in the future.

So far, the gadfly made a prediction while others were speculating about how many Eclipse 500's would be produced by “such-n-such” a date (fulfilling the promises made as to MTOW, range, etc., etc. . . . right out of the Eclipse claims), and my prediction was “zero”, then and forever. Any change in that, “to date”? Not yet!

The Boeing thing . . . “patches” will buy them time, maybe! But so far, in my personal opinion, they are years away from having a clue as to the proper design of fiber-reenforced composites. “They” seem to be attempting a “transition” from joining/marrying composites together, thinking that a “collection of components” can be joined together, with some magic “joining” technology, and produce a unified fiber reenforced “whole”. The fact is, “It ain’t goin’ to happen, no-how, no-way, never!”

There is no “transition” from the component to the composite. All attempts will be a compromise. When the design folks, and manufacturing folks finally get it through their heads, progress will continue . . . but not until then. The technology and understanding is already here . . . nothing new, really. But designers are stubborn . . . or maybe just lazy . . . or both. The extension of a “PhD”, or even a college resume is a “heady thing” . . . and gives a certain importance to a person’s advice . . . while the true wisdom is buried deep in the back-rooms, of the knuckle busters with the dirty finger nails, that have enough sense to come in out of the rain.

So much more to be said . . . but what’s the use?! Boeing is in deep “doo-doo” . . . even they don’t realize how deep. And all the political statements will be of little help. It’s easy to sit around big oval tables, and pontificate as to the next move, but proper design comes from little respected, but knowledgeable folks, working in the shadows, far from the madding crowd.

gadfly

gadfly said...

‘Funny thing about the previous comments about “composites” and that sort of thing. I was just reading about a famous wooden ship, launched in 1917 in Vancouver, and part of the war effort of the “Big War” (WWI, to some of you). I’m looking at a photograph of a shop, filled with the massive “ship’s knees”, the “gussets” of L-shaped sections of wood, hewn from the intersection of tree roots and trunk, critical to the strength of the “Malahat”. This famous “Westcoaster” lived through many a hard experience . . . hauling war supplies from Australia, “rum-runner” during the prohibition carrying thousands of cases of “booze”, and then as a “self-loading, self-propelled, self-dumping log barge” . . . finally coming to her end after severe storms, and sinking in Green Bay in 1944.

Here was a ship whose strength under the most severe of ocean and man-made assaults, was built with the proper use of fiber-reenforced technology, not more than 120-150 miles from Seattle (and Boeing), ninety years before the great and mighty “787", and the very basics of fiber application seem to have been ignored, or unknown by the present designers.

What’s that old saying about those that choose to ignore history . . . and something about repeating “same”?

gadfly

(“Gibson” is the name, for those who wish to investigate the man behind the design, building, and sailing of this famous, but now mostly forgotten ship . . . with the very technology that Boeing seems to have ignored, in the design of the “787" . . . or concluded that there is no connection between a “ship’s knees” and the wing-root on a modern jet. And, he wasn’t the first . . . the same technology goes back, at least, to the early Viking ships, a millennia ago. re: Viking Ship, "Good Templar Park" [by the Fox River], Illinois . . . go take some pictures, and notice the mount for the “mast”. You’ll have to hold your camera up high, over the edge of the “hull” . . . this is no small boat, by any means. [It sailed across the Atlantic, and up through the “Great Lakes”, in time for the Chicago “World’s Fair” in the late 1800's.] Or, maybe you can look through one of the “oar holes” in the side of the hull. ‘Been there, done that!)

eclipse_deep_throat said...

Shane said:
Is this the 'future' for GA as well?

Well, I'll go one farther: the logical evolution for all this is artificial intelligence. Sure, run down to your video store and rent WarGames or ....download the original Terminator movie. I'm sure someone, somewhere, is trying to remove the human from the equation completely. UAVs are just the next stop on this time-line. But a T100 banging down my door? No that won't happen in *my* lifetime. Maybe AI drones are also beyond my lifetime too considering that for it to work, for it to not crash all on its own, to handle 3-axis rotation in 3-dimensional space, all forms of weather, turbulance, enemy actions, etc., it may need at least 1 billion lines of code, if not more. I think there are computers that can write their own software on the fly too ...but then we are into neural networks, DNA-based organic computers that replicate the human brain. It would be cheaper (and easier) to grow a brain -- just the brain! -- in a pitre dish and figure out how to plug it into a plane... LOL.

On Dave's point, an AI-mechanized military will take detachment to a whole new level: imagine the United States in a position where we could easily go to war with a nuclear Iran because we have 100,000 AI tanks, 500 AI F-22 planes, and all B-52H bombers retrofitted to fly themselves. Would you want to go to war with the USA if you knew that each tank/plane that you blew up could be replaced by another AI machine in 24hrs???! AI could allow us to eliminate the term mutually assured destruction, especially if our AI drones can collectively learn to deal with EMP and radiation.

LOL, would you believe that I am now a tax auditor??! Ha! I need to get out more often.

But the real detachment is what it would do to the President ...and our Secy of State, Secy of Defense... and US foreign policy in general when they know they can go to war with no risk to American soldiers. Maybe we keep a few Marines around in case we need the infantry for a ground war.

If/when AI emerges as a real tool for modern warfare, the US Military won't allow the technology to stay in the hands of **commercial** companies. It would NEVER be allowed to trickle down to a GA plane. On one level, maybe it could make air travel safer ...but on another, it could open up planes to hackers instead of suicide hijackers. Lucky for us, this is still in the realm of science fiction...

e.d.t.

Phil Bell said...

Hi Julius,
I share your observations about the business jet metric, being an indicator of company success.

Sort of like saying a business where the CEO drives a Porsche, is more successful than a business where the CEO drives a Toyota.

That may be true, but there's a difference between cause, and effect (and effects! :)

Phil Bell said...

Hi EDT,
"Well, there is Iran and North Korea. Does anyone think our political leaders have the cojones to go to war with either NUCLEAR country".

As you point out, war is becoming a "point and click" affair, what with robotic drones, etc.

The problem with popping N. Korea or Iran, is we don't have control of our borders, and as an open society are way to vulnerable to retalitation. I'm actually quite in favor of controlling the borders, and don't think it would lead to a police state- just the opposite, in fact, it would reduce crime and restore acknowledgement of the rule of law.

Having an open society, isn't the same thing as having open borders. I believe history is proving that is quite correct.

I'm not isolationist- far from it; we live on a global stage, environmentally, politically, and economically.

Phil Bell said...

Hi Shane,
"Is this the 'future' for GA as well? Could there be Unpiloted Aerial Vehicles in our near term future, so that the average Joe who wanted to 'fly' did so without the tedium (and cost) of getting a pilots license?"

Heck- I've been waiting for "automatic driving" cars for decades- even one with limited self-piloting capabilities- such as only on expressways.

(Where's the future at? I'm tired of waiting!! :)

Phil Bell said...

Hi Dave,
"I think military pilots in general have a certain amount of detachment from what is going on at ground level, but with UAVs it takes detachment to a whole new level because the UAV pilots aren't even in the theater of combat"

True- but to some degree, the same could be said for a B-52 at 50K feet, or a nuclear "boomer" missile boat, or a crew in a missile silo.

(I suppose in a way it is more stressful for the drone operator- he's usually using optical viewing to "give consent", so can see what's going on, even if he's remotedly located).

But I agree with your premise- politically, it's a lot more inconsequential to send in the drones (or cruise missiles) rather than sending in the troops.

baron95 said...

Phil, a well sourced post....

But you need to cover one dimension which is the way the US government declared war on Biz Av.

Take a look at this Forbes article

and it's quotes...

"Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the president of Brazil. He is indisputably a man of the left. He founded the Workers' Party in 1980, ran for president in 1989 and lost. In 2002, on his fourth try, he won. But the funny thing is that Lula, the socialist, has never played the populist card of attacking private air travel. That's because Brazil hosts one of the top up-and-coming aircraft manufacturers in the world, Embraer, which makes everything from military aircraft to regional passenger jets. More recently, Embraer set its eyes on the executive jet market. The smallest in the Embraer lineup, the Phenom 100, has wowed the aviation press worldwide.

Cessna's Pelton told me he is "scared to death" of Embraer.

"Cessna is based in Wichita, Kansas. In the aftermath of the recession and the Obama Administration's attacks on private jet travel, Cessna watched its order book shrink by 40%, with U.S. sales hit hardest. Cessna's employment base is down by half, to 8,000."

In the capitalist U.S. the President and congressional leaders have attacked Wichita's main industry, with an Obama Cabinet member telling Pelton to "deal with it." In today's globally competitive marketplace, attacking one of your country's top industries is, to say the least, foolish."

Amazing, isn't it? While Businessweek and Forbes cronicle how the Socialists are losing grip in Europe and the emrging economies of China and Brazil, here in the cradle of capitalism, our government aims a guided missile at the hard of a world leading industry.

Go figure. Nancy must be very happy that CEOs are riding First Class instead of Biz Jets. She could care less that 30K people lost their jobs in Wichita. It is good to be in power.

In São Paulo a socialist president is laughing."

Phil Bell said...

Hi Gadfly,
My relatives have a picture of themselves going through the tree- must be from the 1940's- cool!

Thanks for the information on the "nature's composites"- trees! (I'm also impressed with honeycomb!!)

Btw, I was curious about the Gibson, and it's construction techniques, that you mention- but I couldn't find it on the web- any link you could post? Thanks!

And regarding nature's composites-

baron95 said...

E.D.T. said... On Dave's point, an AI-mechanized military will take detachment to a whole new level:
--------------------
I have a diametrically opposed view on this. I think the opposite will result by using un-manned aircraft and combat vehicles.

It was never the soldier/airman in the field that caused restraint on the way we persecute warfare. It was always the public opinion in the US when faced with the images of war. LeMay incinerated 250,000 (mostly women, children and the old) in the Tokyo fire bombings and Bomber Harris incinerated tens of thousands night after night in Germany and no one cared.

Why? The air crews saw it all. But it wasn't on TV or western newspapers day after day.

Now think about it. Every unmanned, remotely piloted vehicle will, by definition, have a camera or other optics. In addition, the press will have UAVs of their own.

So there will be live feeds of these weapons striking their targets and the consequences on the evening news (errr.... on youtube) within minutes.

Why do you think the US Military has grown so averse to collateral damage?

The image of a single dead woman or child or god forbid a dead woman holding a child on the news or internet resulting from a US military action can have an overwhelming impact. And that is how it should be.

With more UAVs will come more cameras, more footage of war consequences and a diminish willingness by the US public to persecute wars.

The US military already can bomb Iran or N. Korea at will with conventional or nuclear weapons. We can do it with stand off weapons without risking a single pilot. We can do it with F22s without much risk. The restraints are simply due to the images that the US public (not the military) will have to deal with.

gadfly said...

Phil

The ship was the “Malahat” . . . and it was Gordon Gibson that transformed it into a “log carrier”, at the end of prohibition, etc., etc.. Do a search on the name of the ship, and the name of the man . . . you’ll find plenty of information. The ship displaced about 1,550 tons . . . not bad for a wooden ship, about 2/3 as much weight as our fleet type submarine.

A picture may be found at:

http://www.vancouvermaritimemuseum.com/page219.htm

Here’s a quote from a book: “Gordon Gibson buys the laid-up rumrunner the Malahat, hacks the deck open and creates the world's first self-loading, self-dumping, self-propelled barge which changes everything on the coast. It meant we could take timber from the west coast of Vancouver Island, the central coast, the Queen Charlottes, all three of which are exposed areas. A nightmare to try and tow log booms in. They couldn't log those areas successfully until they could figure out a reliable way of getting- the wood from the inlets to the mills on the Fraser River.”

http://www.harbourpublishing.com/excerpt/Westcoasters/webonly/53

gadfly

(My earlier info came from my own library, and had many pictures of high quality, showing the ship under construction.)

Phil Bell said...

Hi Baron,
Thanks for the article from Forbes.

I think the media "made" the Detroit biz jet story, with "ambush journalism"- not that the Detroit CEO's were ambushed, rather, politicians were accousted with "what are you going to do about it"/camera-in-the-face reporters- politicians were rather forced to play along, or risk having the anger over bailouts be directed at themselves.

I was rather surprised the Forbes article would allow the use such weak- and erroneous inferences:
"In the capitalist U.S. the President and congressional leaders have attacked Wichita's main industry, with an Obama Cabinet member telling Pelton to "deal with it." In today's globally competitive marketplace, attacking one of your country's top industries is, to say the least, foolish."

The President, and congressional leaders, have never attacked aviation. They have mildly whined about companies receiving tax payer's bail out dollars, then spending money on CEO perks.

On the other hand, "The President, and congressional leaders" have taken concrete steps to BOOST avaition:
"Tax Inventives Good for aircraft buyers, owners".

("If you’re buying or updating an airplane used in business, the stimulus measure signed by President Obama last month includes good news for you.")

Rather disappointing, and biased, sensationist "journalism" from Forbes, it seems.

John Ashcroft- who was SIXTH behind the VP in the US line of presidential succession, flew private jets, almost 10 years ago. Ashcroft Flying High, CBS News, July 26, 2001.

Now, the funny thing about THAT is, THIS.

Or not so funny...

(Regarding Pelosi flying private, astute readers will note, as speaker of the house, she is FIRST behind the VP in succession).

Phil Bell said...

But I have to agree- Embraer is a becoming a strong player in GA.

I haven't quite figured out why, maybe the unique combination of;

1) lower labor rates

2) good technical capability from recent development programs (ERJ-145, 170, 190)

3) no carryover models, so they have to invent everything in this size "clean sheet", and are unfettered with potentially dated "parts bin" componentry.

4) I suspect, preferential tax treatment by the Brazilian government.

baron95 said...

Phil said...The President, and congressional leaders, have never attacked aviation.

---------------------

Humm.....OK.... if you say so. My bad...I thought the Dems introduced legislation in the congress to amend TARP to FORCE all companies receiving TARP funding to divest of all business aircraft.

That forced wholesale dumping of airplanes on the market almost overnight.

But hey.... I don't blame the Dems. I blame the D3 CEOs which have no balls.

When asked why they came by biz jet to DC, they should simply say "for the same reason the Speaker of the house uses an airforce biz jet to fly between DC and San Francisco. Except that we paid our way, and tax payers paid her way. And we used GVs, where Ms. Pelosi some times uses a C-32 - which is the airforce designation for a 200-passenger B757."

Boom - end of story.

At least Mulally, who didn't need any freaking money and came from Boeing should have done better.

Anyway. What is done is done.

Let them continue to demonize profit and demonize biz jets and demonize CEOs.

The socialist parties in China and Brazil will show them the way back to the center in due time.

baron95 said...

Phil Bell said... But I have to agree- Embraer is a becoming a strong player in GA. I haven't quite figured out why.

-----------------

Well, they are still not that strong, but making good first moves.

You can't figure out why? Take a look at the normal procedures checklist of the Phenom 100 - single, shirt-pocket-sized card. Take a look at the service intervals and equipment access for maintenance. Stay tuned for the announcement that the Phenom 300 will have data link to Embraer service centers and it will be offered on the Phenom 100.

This is a company that believes Biz AV should have the same dispatch reliability and simple procedures demanded by airlines.

I don't think labor rates or tax incentives have much to do with it at all.

Given the current exchange rate US$ is worth half of what it was worth 2 years ago, Embraer is at a significant cost disadvantage.

They simply design good planes with a lot of attention to human factors.

But given that all of Embraer's planes are > 10,000lbs MTOW, I wouldn't say they are a major force in GA by any stretch.

airsafetyman said...

"Given the current exchange rate US$ is worth half of what it was worth 2 years ago, Embraer is at a significant cost disadvantage."

The world does not revolve around the US navel anymore.

"But given that all of Embraer's planes are > 10,000lbs MTOW, I wouldn't say they are a major force in GA by any stretch."

Aircraft maximum take-off weight has nothing to do with wheither an airplane is a general aviation airplane or not.

As far as being a "major force" in general aviation, Embraer's 2008
general aviation sales figures of 921 million dollars are four times that of Piper and more than three times that of Cirrus.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Congratulations to the team at Gulfstream - they rolled out the first G650 today.

http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/flightblogger/2009/09/g650-rollout.html

julius said...

baron95,

When asked why they came by biz jet to DC, they should simply say "for the same reason the Speaker of the house uses an airforce biz jet to fly between DC and San Francisco. Except that we paid our way, and tax payers paid her way. And we used GVs, where Ms. Pelosi some times uses a C-32 - which is the airforce designation for a 200-passenger B757."


this would be one of the most stupid answers!

They might have said, we made the final preparations for this hearing and had some specialists with us to discuss the latest developments...

If they were simply alone in the jets (apart from the crew)...
Pelosi orders the 757 when she wants to take some people with her.

Was GM's boss really in position to say "I paid my way"? The banks, the shareholders had to pay the bills!

Embraer's planes offer a lot of space for the money. Cessna still sticks at some smaller sections (apart from the Skycatcher and both of the top models). I do not know if Cessna's customers prefer smaller a/cs.

Julius

baron95 said...

Sorry Julius - Yours is a purely defensive answer. When asked a loaded question, best tactic is to turn it around and expose the hypocrisy of the questioner.

And at that time, they were paying their way.

And Nancy Pelosy flew that 757 to CA on by herself (and I think one other person). Not a whole bunch of people.

Cost to tax payers was $60K one way.

Thing is the president won't fly commercial, the Speaker won't fly commercial, the VP won't fly commercial, most of the cabinet does not fly commercial.

If the shareholders of GM want their CEO to be productive and fly Biz Jet, that is their business.

It is not the most cost effective way to travel? Of course not. So what? Maintaining unneeded factories full of unneeded UAW workers and paying workers to stay home is not cost effective either. Of the two, we all know which one killed GM.

gadfly said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
julius said...

baron95,

if a CEO pays "his a/c" then he obviously may use any a/c.

A CEO of a public company must explain why he needs a GV or an a/c. If he cannot do so the BOD shouldn't allow this request.
Nobody rents office space for 400 persons if the demand is for 100 persons!

Blaming a third person which cannot defend itself, is quite often a boomerang. Good facts are always the better arguments!


Anyhow only one survived...


Julius

bill e. goat said...

"Maintaining unneeded factories full of unneeded UAW workers and paying workers to stay home is not cost effective either. Of the two, we all know which one killed GM."

I agree- bad management killed GM.

bill e. goat said...

And Chrysler.

bill e. goat said...

And Saturn.

bill e. goat said...

Hi Luke
As an engineer who worked for a major automotive diesel engine manufacturer for a couple years (hint: it is located in Indiana and produces engines for Dodge trucks), I can assure you that "clean" diesels are actually clean -- orders of magnitude more clean then older diesels.

Thanks for the info!

I hope everything is going okay for you, with the slowdown in Detroit?

Seems like fuel prices are down again- I paid $2.14 for unleaded today- maybe that will help the general economy, including Detroit.

(Oh, okay, and South Carolina too).

.)

bill e. goat said...

CWMOR,
Thanks for the news on the Gulfstream G650 rollout- wow- I thouht it was a long ways off- looks like -maybe- it taxied by under it's own power- here's a youtube vid somebody took with a cell phone cam or something- same circumstances, with a bit more "pomp".
G650 roll out

bill e. goat said...

Hi Baron,
"And Nancy Pelosy flew that 757 to CA on by herself (and I think one other person). Not a whole bunch of people. Cost to tax payers was $60K one way."

Hmmm, with only one pax, maybe they could add some extra fuel tanks to an EA-500, and get there in one hop.

Or add aerial refueling?

I think we were figuring almost 1 lb per mile...Maybe a EA500 VIP version for the government?

(Actually, I'd heard that's essentially what the C-21 is).

"U.S.Air Force Air Force squadrons at bases worldwide have begun retiring more than half of their C-21 fleets as part of a servicewide effort to cut personnel and save money.
The Air Force will transfer 38 aircraft, sending 16 from active-duty units to the Air National Guard in Fargo, N.D., and Bradley, Conn., the service announced in December. The rest of the jets will be sent to the Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Center at Davis Monthan Air Force Base, Ariz., and the Air Force Flight Standards Agency at Will Rogers Air Guard Station, Okla."


!! Sounds like Uncle Sam will need a cheap to operate replacement...??

bill e. goat said...

Hi Julius,
re: D3 CEO's flying in to Detroit.
I think the issue isn't them flying in business jets- it's them flying in LUXURY jets, WHILE asking for tax payer dollars.

A plane like that is CEO perk, pure and simple- no productivity arguments apply for walnut and gold trim.

When they put vinyl floormats on the thick pile carpet, I'll say it's a business tool. Otherwise- it's a perk.

If a company want's to lavish such perks, okay, that's the up to the stockholders/BoD- but to do it while asking for tax dollar bailouts at the same time is insulting to the public.

bill e. goat said...

(So in otherwords, I lean towards Julius' interpretation. Baron makes valid points for profitable companies, but I think less so for the D3 crowd).

bill e. goat said...

Hi Baron,
MORE catching up...
"Scary stuff - the DJet is on the cover of AOPA Mag. Previously when the A-500 and Eclipse EA500 made the covers of AOPA Mag and Flying, the companies and programs folded within weeks. Lets hope that the DJet escapes the same fate."

I went searching on the web, but didn't find the article- but found the following- Sept 2007 (!) AOPA article on the D-Jet:
AOPA- DiamondJet, Sept 2007 !!

"A second Diamond D-Jet has made its maiden flight. The jet flew on Sept. 14 from Diamond's London facility."

That got me to thinking, where was Eclipse two years after the first flight of their second airplane (er, sorry for all the math there).

Another strike-out on the web, I couldn't find the first-flight date of the second Eclipse- let's figure it was mid-2005. That would have put the "full up" certification date (EASA-ish, Nov 2008) over three years late. Guess D-Jet is doing okay, schedule wise, by comparison- another 12 months, maybe?

Cessna Mustang (and Embraer Phenom)- sure did a better job, schedule wise though...

bill e. goat said...

Hi Gadfly,
As far as politicians taking us on a trip- yikes! I think we're all going to debtor's prison. A trip I'd rather not take...

baron95 said...

Julius said...Good facts are always the better arguments!
----------------

Not for politicians or Hollywood.

Both depend on theatrics, optics, suspension of reality and gullibility of the audience to thrive.

Facts will get you nowhere against a 30 seconds sound bite from "populist" politician's rant on the evening news.

You would not even get your "boring factual" response aired.

It is a non starter.

It is like trying to reason with logic with a guy that is punching you. Not advisable.

Shoot the guy in the head. You may go to jail, but you'll go in alive.

baron95 said...

I can assure you that "clean" diesels are actually clean -- orders of magnitude more clean then older diesels.
----------------------------

Errr....Newer sewer waste in the US is also a lot cleaner than the "older sewers".

So what.

How does a 2009 diesel engine for the same power and same engineering/production budget compares to a 2009 gas engine?

Answer: very poorly.

baron95 said...

BEG said.... A plane like that is CEO perk, pure and simple- no productivity arguments apply for walnut and gold trim.

When they put vinyl floormats on the thick pile carpet, I'll say it's a business tool. Otherwise- it's a perk.
----------------------

Well done BEG. Spoken like a true and clueless marxist/unionist.

Don't you know that people in comfortable, well lit, well appointed environments are more productive, happier and more enthusiastic about their jobs.

As a shareholder do you really want your CEO to wake up every morning and dread either going through airports, TSA and airlines or fly in a vinyl lined plane when he needs to spot in 3 different places and close billion dollar deals?

I don't.

I want my CEO to NOT AVOID being where he is needed because he dreads the trip.

I want him or her to enjoy the trips, arrive in good spirits, refreshed and ready to make a killing for me.

But hey.... there are people....Fidel comes to mind...that think no A/C, no leather, poor lighting is just fine.

The reader can judge the results.

baron95 said...

Baron makes valid points for profitable companies, but I think less so for the D3 crowd (asking for money)
-------------------------

So let me get that straight...

A company is in trouble....it is already hard to recruit top tallent to head that company (would you rather work for BMW or Chrysler?),...

BEG's solution....

Lets make it even harder to attract top exec talent by making the CEO travel commercial.

Yep. That is really, really, really smart.

Well done again.

airsafetyman said...

"I think the issue isn't them flying in business jets- it's them flying in LUXURY jets, WHILE asking for tax payer dollars."

Exactamento. The solution would be to use NetJets and the whole ownership issue is off the table. The TSA, the FAA, and the airlines have allowed the airline experience to approach third world status, in many cases it's even worse. Nobody should be forced to risk their neck or their health flying in filthy, falling apart airliners
or be abused by TSA goons.

Luke said...

baron95 says...

How does a 2009 diesel engine for the same power and same engineering/production budget compares to a 2009 gas engine?

Answer: very poorly.

---------

At my previous company, it was said that the exhaust gas was actually cleaner (defined as fewer particulates, etc.) than the intake air -- such was the effectiveness of the next-gen (i.e., post-2007 on-highway) aftertreatment systems. For all I know, that could be an urban legend, but I thought it was interesting.

Baron, I think your view on aero-diesels are interesting. I had always thought that a well-designed diesel could dramatically enhance range and economy for piston airplanes, but I think you're saying that the additional weight would nullify its other advantages? Or is it just that it doesn't make financial sense to develop a reliable diesel? I heartily agree with the second reason.

You often say that current gas aero engines are hopelessly outdated. One obvious "improvement" would be to increase the compression ratio from 7 to 10. But this would either destroy the engine in a few hundred hours or require substantial added weight. It seems unfair to compare an aviation engine, which operates at 75% capacity, to an auto engine, which usually is no more than 20%.

baron95 said...

Luke said...I had always thought that a well-designed diesel could dramatically enhance range and economy for piston airplanes, but I think you're saying that the additional weight would nullify its other advantages?
--------------------------

I'm not sure I'd go that far.

The best example we have is the Diamond DA42.

There is currently a version powered by a diesel certified in 2009 (170HP Austro) and a version powered by a IO360 gas engine certified over four decades ago.

The diesel costs 2.5 times as much, weighs 1/3 more, and has a climb and cruise disadvantage in performance.

BUT

It does burn less fuel.

Soooooooo

In places where AvGas is hard to find, is very expensive (due to taxation) and/or in application where you fly a lot with light loads and don't care about cruise speed (e.g. flight training, pipeline inspection, etc), the Diesel makes sense.

For everyone else, even a 4 decade old design beats the best aero diesel on the market (the Austro).

And Austro spent a reported $50M to develop it.

Can you imagine how much better the IO360 could get if Lycoming threw $50M at it, added FADEC, high pressure direct injection, modern turbocharging, etc, etc, etc.

It would blow the Austro out of the sky without even trying.

Diesel have their place - but it is only due to artificial fuel shortages or pricing vs gas and some longevity.

baron95 said...

Luke said...But this would either destroy the engine in a few hundred hours or require substantial added weight.
--------------------

Why? Auto manufacturers have increase the compression of their engines while reducing weight steadily.

Are you saying that an engine that was designed in 1960 without any computer fluid/gas flow model, no FEA, no independent cylinder metering/injection, etc, etc, etc, can't be improved?

I bet you that high-pressure direct injection with optimized valvetrain and plugs alone can improve SFC by 10-20%. Independent cylinder metering and closed loop FADEC alone could allow for a much more aggressive leaning.

I don't think the economics are there for such a program, and that is a shame.

julius said...

baron95,

if you compare Diesel or small turbo fan engines with 100LL or bigger turbo fan engines keep in mind that the decades of experience are one important difference.

The Austro Diesel is also based on some experience of the Thielert Diesel!
As long as 100LL is used for "cooling" engines (old "aero physiscs"!) there is no real need to reduce fuel consumption!

Adding FADEC to an engine is a major system change - Diamond/Thielert had to learn this lesson, too!

Julius

P. S.: It's not an advantage for the GA if the biz jets mainly are perks for the CEOs (or politicians)!

Deep Blue said...

Phil: have been out for a while, but wanted to say "nice job" on the blog management.

As for the current difficulties, I think they actually bode well for business aviation: a necessary shake out of marginal players; some very much needed consolidation and perhaps some migration of certain GA manufacturers away from conglomorate holding companies over to more specialized parents and partners.

As for pure GA, I still very much like the Icon project and believe it will succeed.

As for Aboulafia, I've always appreciated his sobriety but he's not really a leading indicator of the sector and of course views much of the industry ex post facto. There's plenty of criticism to go around but some real leadership and risk taking is still rare. And that is always hard to predict from forecasting platforms. But let me be clear: I think Rich is the best at what he does.

Worse still than GA, is, I think, Boeing. A very sad deterioration presided over by over-indulged, employee execs with no skin in the game.

As for the BO White House regime, their sentiment toward aerospace in general is not articulated nor championed; NASA is an example: no policy. I don't think whatever feelings they have toward GA/Bizav is any more or less focused or articulate than any other project they're running: this current crew is very short on business experience, industrial policy experience.

I suspect GA needs, rather, much stronger leadership at the association/trade level than has been demonstrated. The NBAA for example, is a very weak, risk averse, legacy platform that along with GAMA, AOPA and others let themselves get steamrolled pretty easily. Not much guts there; too much apologist behavior.

gadfly said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bill e. goat said...

Hello Baron,
"Well done BEG. Spoken like a true and clueless marxist/unionist."

Hmmm- let's try substituting taxpayer there. And yes, many tax payers are union members. And many more are not.

"Don't you know that people in comfortable, well lit, well appointed environments are more productive, happier and more enthusiastic about their jobs."

Yes. Me too, in fact.

"As a shareholder do you really want your CEO to wake up every morning and dread either going through airports, TSA and airlines or fly in a vinyl lined plane when he needs to spot in 3 different places and close billion dollar deals?"

Whoa, Baron, let me pull you back out of the weeds- you went off the end of the runway. Who said anything about going through TSA or the airlines? Or using airlines?

"I don't. I want my CEO to NOT AVOID being where he is needed because he dreads the trip."

Me too. I think he ought to use a business jet.

"I want him or her to enjoy the trips, arrive in good spirits, refreshed and ready to make a killing for me."

You have inadvertently revealed my exact position on what an over-compensated CEO does, but that's a subject independent of his transportation devices.

"But hey.... there are people....Fidel comes to mind...that think no A/C, no leather, poor lighting is just fine."

I fear your eagerness to promote corporatism has clouded the issue.

I'm in favor of business travelers using...business aircraft. Kinda makes sense, I think. Guess that's why they gave 'em that name.

But the D3 incompetents flying in on airborne yatchs is generally fine with me. I wish they would come and address congress more often.

Oh- but wait- they came to ask for corporate bailouts. How will their corporation use that money? On Lear 45's and Beech Premier's and Cessna Citations?

Oh, guess not. They were going to use part of it to fly their execs around on $50M luxury jets instead (these are NOT business jets- they are private jets. There is utterly no business case for them, except for the *rare* occasion when they are used for long range international travel. I think a Lear 45 or Premier or Excel would work quite fine for Detroit-DC hop- why it would even be cost effective. Not as cost effective as charter though. But hey, what's cost effectiveness have to do with running a business, right?

"The reader can judge the results."

Yes, we can.

General Motors Declares Bankruptcy

Chrysler Bankruptcy Filings

GM to Pull Plug on Saturn
--------------------------------

And I have nothing against $50M airborne yachts. Or $50M floating yachts, either. I hope Bill Gates and friends, profitable corporations, and foreign and domestic governments buy dozen's of em- even hundreds of 'em. If those companies are making a profit, and choose to bestow such perks, or need the long range, or high payload, then fine.

I was all in favor of Cessna moving up-market with the Columbus, and think the Challenger series is a great product line. Dassault makes great planes too. What these airplanes are used for, is immaterial for me- as long as I'm not being told to subsidize them, as was the case with the D3 clowns.

Shane Price said...

Another 'eBay optimist' Snippet

Seems Brandon Jets want shot of an FPJ.

Quelle surprise...

Check out the eBay page to see what the current state of play is.

When I posted this, it was stuck on the only bid so far, at $950k. I suspect this is the reserve, which seems, well, optimistic.

Shane
PS Hard luck Chicago as Rio gets the 2016 Games....

Deep Blue said...

Shane said:

"PS Hard luck Chicago as Rio gets the 2016 Games....:

Yes. It seems even Africa isn't swayed by Obama. The US is one big dung heap (sorry B95) as far as the rest of the world is concerned.

Hello Germany, Brazil, China.

Well, as far as GA, I still really like Icon.

Support Kirk Hawkins: the best GA entrepreneur going.

GettingReady2FileSuit said...

If Brandon & co. wants to really impress us, then conduct the sale of N712WG (http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=250506358048#ht_2801wt_1167) as a dutch auction (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_auction for you home gamers) with the price coming down $5000 per day. And of course, no reserve.

Then the true value of a "slightly" used Ecorpse 499 will be truely known.

EclipsePilotOMSIV said...

Seems EAI got ahold of the Type Cert for the E500, EASA is on its way. Small step, however in the right direction.

Phil Bell said...

Hi Gadfly,
Thank you for the links to information regarding the ship Malahat.
(Built 1917 "she was one of the last sailing ships built on the coast, signifying the end of an era " and decommisioned 1944.

Beautiful ship- too bad it wasn't preserved for future generations.

(I appreciate your comments about the national parks being preserved- I think they are treasures- hopefully with gas prices falling somewhat, folks will be able to get out and see more of them!).

There's a Wikipedia article on Gordon Gibson, Sr. too,
"Gibson was a millionaire timber baron whose nickname was 'Bull of the Woods' due to his loud lumberjack's voice. He was dismissed as a rough, hard-drinking logger who had made it rich, but was loved by many small loggers as being one of the only people to be interested in them over the interests of big business. In the 1920s, he and his brothers ran the Gibson Lumber and Shingle Company. During the depression, they were active around Vancouver Island, Vancouver and Seattle. The story of these early days is told in the book 'Bull of the Woods'".

(Gadfly- your incredible richness and diversity of knowledge and experience never ceases to amaze me. I'm a bit curious how you're familiar with Mr. Gibson and his fine ship? Maybe you spent some time in the Pacific NW?)

Phil Bell said...

Hello Deep_Blue,
Welcome back- and thanks for the kind compliment, and great post!

"As for the current difficulties, I think they actually bode well for business aviation: a necessary shake out of marginal players; some very much needed consolidation and perhaps some migration of certain GA manufacturers away from conglomorate holding companies over to more specialized parents and partners."

Seems like HawkerBeech made a move in that direction, when sold by Raytheon, and from what I read, many had expected the same with Textron/Cessna, back in the May-June time frame.

It would be neat to have a pilot as President- makes me wonder when the last time that happened- (I guess both Bushs had been military pilots, but not GA "enthusiasts").

Phil Bell said...

Hi Shane,
Thanks for the link to the eBay auction (!ironic, given the eBay Motors pic on previous headline :)

Still at $950K, 6 days 9 hours to go.
Seems to be well equiped, and only 94 hours.
With some degree of factory support available, it is discouraging to see it not "moving".

*LX Edition Interior (Slate Color)
*LX Edition
*Sixth Forward Facing Seat
*Plated Metals
*Part 135 Package
*CoPilot Package
*Blue Backlit Instrument Panel
*Stormscope (not currently activated)
*Terrain Awareness Warning System
*Radar Altimeter (not currently activated)
*ADF
*DME
*Taxi & Recognition Lights
*Lower Fuselage Skid Pads

*"This aircraft is in excellent condition and has always been professionally managed and flown! Delivered on May 14th, 2008 by Eclipse Aviation Corporation in Albuquerque, New Mexico. N712WG was flown by the FAA Federal Aviation Administration for the majority of its 94 hours Total Time"

(?That seems kinda strange? Way past TC if it was delivered in May 2008).

Real planes for real life said...

On a very positive note I wish to thank Bombardier for sponsoring the 13th annual Safety Standdown in Wichita, Kansas this week. This program was four days long and I enjoyed every part. The speakers were excellent and the topics covered were relevant and timely.

One of the more interesting presentations was from Sean Roberts of the National Test Pilot School on “Flight Envelope: What every Pilot Needs to Know to Survive an Upset”.

Anytime spent focusing on safety is time well spent and this program was worth the investment of time.

Finally while it wasn’t a “sales event” and Bombardier didn’t market any product, it did leave me with a more positive impression of Bombardier than I had going into the program - because it was so well done.

Thank you Bombardier!

Real planes for real life said...

On another positive note - on Friday morning while taxiing to depart Wichita Mid-Continent I observed a prototype CJ4 landing in a very strong cross wind.

Kevin

Shane Price said...

Our Peg has 'landed'...

Ms Billson, who was so rudely ejected by Roel from her central role at EAC, has now found a (safer) harbour.

It seems that BBA Aviation have decided to appoint her to the position of (and I'm not joking) "President, Legacy Support".

With a job title like that, I've got the feeling her days at EAC will come in useful.

Shane

airsafetyman said...

"PS Hard luck Chicago as Rio gets the 2016 Games...."

Thank God Rio got the games. If Chicago had won it would have been the Hillary Clinton games, the Oprah Winfrey games, the Rahm Emanuel games, the Mayor Daley games, the Chicago police circa 1968 police riot games. Also now we don't have to cringe for our country as the world's visitors are abused by TSA goons doing their best German concentration camp guard impersonations.

Phil Bell said...

Hello Kevin
(aka RealPlanesforRealLife),

Thank you for your comments regarding the annual
Bombardier Safety Stand Down

It looks like quite an impressive array of topics were discussed.

"Unfortunately, (presentations) are not available electronically due to copyright issues. However, each participant will be issued a notebook with copies of the presentations."

So, if you want the info, you gotta go there. But the good news is-
"Safety Standdown is a non-marketing event. There is nothing being sold and nothing to buy. This seminar is free of charge".

Thanks for mentioning the event- it seems like a great happening.

Also, thanks for the observation regarding the Cessna CJ4- it's encouraging to know some R&D activity is still going on.

Phil Bell said...

Hi Shane,
Regarding BBA's potential for supporting Eclipse products, sounds like they have an organization that would "fit" that role;
BBA Ontic

"Ontic focuses exclusively on developing product licensing agreements with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Through these agreements, it takes on full aftermarket supply and support responsibility for particular products or services".

Hmmm.

Phil Bell said...

An out of state weekend jaunt has delayed the typical Monday morning "headline" post by 24 hours- my appologies.

(Great weather for a beautiful early-autumn trip!)

baron95 said...

Eclipse Aerospace also gained title to all 28 Eclipse jets formerly operated by DayJet.

------------------

Hey Shane - no law suits for that, or anything else for that matter, huh?

I'm wondering when all the lawsuits and jailings will start. Anything hitting the inbox lately? ;)

Shane Price said...

Baron,

As I made clear, as soon as I saw it, someone pretending to be 'me' made allegations about lawsuits.

The last mention, to or by me, of legal complications was during the BK proceedings when several EAC depositors was very outspoken, both to me and to journalists covering the events.

I repeat what I said in August. I have no knowledge of any lawsuit against EAC or it's (former) officers.

The action by Al Mann against Roel Peiper for recovery of DIP funds, the action by the PLG, one of whom broke away and is reserving their position and the E400 'group' attempting to recover their deposits (supposedly held in escrow) are all on the public record.

Some these actions continue, some failed but are held open and others are (pretty much) a waste of time.

What is interesting is how 'easily' EA were able to get control of the DayJet birds. Perhaps the blog suspicion that DayJet never really bought them in the first place turns out to have been correct.

Perhaps EAC had ultimate control of them all along.

I can think of at least one way this could have been done. It would explain why Ed was so patient with EAC, and only fired a broadside when finally closing down.

Shane

bill e. goat said...

Shane and Baron,
Regarding legal action, I agree- law suits are not what I had in mind.

However, a different type of "suit" comes to mind.

baron95 said...

Hi Shane,

My apologies - I didn't realize you too had been victim of the spoofer.

I thought the only question on the DJ planes was a UT lien. I was curious about how that got resolved.

Incidentally, PWC is laying off folks in Quebec and consolidating from 3 to 2 facilities. I wonder if the lower volume of PWC 61X is one of the reasons.

Shane Price said...

Baron,

I suspect (but can't prove) that the UT lien on the DayJet aircraft was 'supported' by a buyback clause from EAC.

As the timing of the DayJet failure was prior to the initial cutbacks at EAC, I expect that UT put the hammer on Roel and got whatever they could at the time.

The alternative is that UT managed to flog off a few of them and possibly have some ongoing interest in the remainder. Just after the initial Chapter 11 announcement I had several contacts who claimed that some of these aircraft changed hands at very low amounts, and that a number of birds were sold 'under a million' dollars.

At the end of the day I fear that the truth, about this and several other matters, will never emerge from the ashes of GA's largest financial crater.

Shane

Deep Blue said...

"Boeing Will Take $1 Billion Charge in Quarter

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: October 6, 2009

CHICAGO (AP) — The Boeing Company said Tuesday that it expected to take a charge of $1 billion in the third quarter because of higher costs in its 747-8 program and because of market conditions.

Last year, the company said it was delaying deliveries of the 747-8 freighter and passenger jets because of design changes, limited engineering resources and a strike that shut down the company’s commercial jet factories for eight weeks."

Limited engineering resources?

This company's strategy is just amazing; and how there hasn't been a forced management shakeup even more so.

airsafetyman said...

At the time I e-mailed the head of the Boca newspaper and told him about highly questionable actions with DayJet. He snottily wrote back that they did not do hard news but covered things like "society events and dog shows". I wrote back and asked him how he could tell the dfference between the two but did not get a reply.

GettingReady2FileSuit said...

It is now possible to purchase (used) a REAL jet such as a < 800 hour, on a FULLY paid engine program, NDH, 445ktas, FL410, ultra wide cabin, .80/320kias mmo/vmo, Premier-I for under 2.5mm

Why would anyone in their right mind want a premie-FPJ for the same price?

Brandon & co. still has ZERO bids for N712WG which is what we all suspected would be the case right from the outset.

GA may not make it through this. I dunno.

Shane Price said...

GR2FS,

I agree about Brandon Jets.

To me, the eBay effort is partly a 'stunt', partly desperation.

And another thing:-

Why would anyone shell out a million dollars (on eBay!!!) for an incomplete aircraft with questionable long term support?

Oh, how the mighty have fallen....

Shane

baron95 said...

GettingReady2FileSuit said...
Why would anyone in their right mind want a premie-FPJ for the same price?

--------------------

Well, right now, no one is buying either.

But if you are asking the reason for buying new VLJ (e.g. C510) vs old larger jet (e.g. Premier I), the reasons are many:

- lower fuel burn
- lower insurance
- warranty = lower maintenance costs
- Much better/safer avionics (e.g. SVS).
- smell of new, etc, etc, etc

So the newer/smaller jet will keep on saving you money for quite some time on everything except depreciation.

baron95 said...

covered things like "society events and dog shows". I wrote back and asked him how he could tell the dfference between the two
----------------------------

The difference between the bitches are obvious. One smells nicer is a lot more fun, but can hire a lawyer at any time. The other one will stand by you and bite the lawyer on command.

Still - I prefer the former ;)

EclipsePilotOMSIV said...

i am surprised that everyone seems focused on an Ebay deal, and no one has notice customer communication released from EAI today...

gadfly said...

EP,etc.

After reading the EAI announcements, me thinks that Albuquerque, in all fairness and goodwill, would like to transfer the potential success of the little bird to the Detroit area, as they are statistically in worse shape than ABQ, and while we enjoy the success of another "hot air" event (the International Hot Air event*, and so on), we would bid a fond farewell, with tear in our collective eye, to the little bird that thought it could, to those that claimed future success with the "Obamamobile", etc., etc., etc.

gadfly

(*Contrary to common belief, the "Hot Air" event is dedicated to vehicles that actually rise to great heights from the hot air generated by "Propane Burners", and not from the lungs of current Washington politicians. But the confusion is rightfully understood.)

Phil Bell said...

New headline post (finally) up!

Hey, it's still morning somewhere!

(Well, guess not- it's even afternoon in Samoa...)

(With much frustration, I have learned that OpenOffice documents do not post well into HTML...but it's still a great deal- it's shareware!)

Phil Bell said...

EclipsePilotOMSIV,
Thanks for the tip on the EAI announcement- it is linked in the comments on the new thread.

Gadfly,
"from the hot air generated by "Propane Burners..."
Are you saying politicans are "gas bags"?
(They can certainly give ME gas anyway :)

JetBroker said...

Hello Yawl! It's a bit of a sad story. My client spent $4,000 just to have me market the "auction" itself and ZERO bids!!

The advertising went out to over 160,000 folks in corporate aviation worldwide to include pilots, mechanics, owners, brokers, dealers etc. etc.

While we received numerous inquiries on the auction / jet the general consensus is most potential buyers are not yet comfortable with the new Eclipse Aerospace. Many comment that they are a bit shocked at the new co management team..

1.) Mason Holland as CEO???? Um...I think he spent his whole career in software.

2.) Director of Sales (Ken). This chap just retired and was selling software all of his career.

3.) Ken Ross as Supervisor of Maintenance. I like Ken, he's treated me well whenever I spoke or dealt with him but it's my understanding he was primarily an aviation attorney and ran FBO's in the past.

4.) Mike Press, I won't give the COL a hard time.... :-)

Guess my point is I remember this group saying back in April they were going to search for a "seasoned" management team with aircraft manufacturing expertise.

???? What happened ????

I have 5 EJ's to get sold and I'm out! :-)

tick tock, tick tock.......