Thursday, September 10, 2009

Labor Day 2009 (Part 2 of 3)


Partly cloudy skies...

While preparing the previous thread, I came across some material, which is moderately encouraging. I wish it were more dramatically so, but the fact it was not all bad news, is in itself, encouraging

As bleak as things might seem, Reuters, Aug 24 reports:

"U.S. aerospace and defense firms are expected to cut about 30,000 jobs in 2009, or about 4.5 percent of the workforce, and layoffs are likely to continue in 2010, according to a study by Aviation Week and several industry associations.

"The group's annual workforce survey concluded that total job losses in the sector could reach 10 percent, but said that was still far below the 40 percent cut seen after the end of the Cold War, when defense spending was pared back sharply."

Frankly, I was somewhat surprised to see the losses were -only- 4.5 percent. That's not much comfort to anyone in that 4.5 percent group, but it's encouraging to know 95.5% of the aerospace workforce is still employed. The good news for our friends in the 4.5 percent group is, turnover is typically several percent at most companies, potentially creating openings for many- theoretically almost everyone who is out of work. Things won't quite work out that way for all, but hopefully, it will for some.

The 10 percent number of potential cutbacks is also a mixed bag; growth would be good news, but "only" bottoming out at 10 percent reduction, is 400 percent better than bottoming out with a 40 percent reduction. (Lots of percentages/statistics there- some saying about statistics and the people who use them...but still, moderately encouraging news).

While the general economy slowly improves (some), there are pending developments which might bring good news.

The Air Force KC-X tanker program is being re-competed, with a new Request for Proposal expected soon. Some opine that the World Trade Organization ruling against Airbus might favor a Boeing bid, and create jobs more US jobs than a Northrop-Grumman/Airbus venture (sorry for our friends in Europe). On the other hand, I've heard the opinion that the only way there will EVER be a new tanker program, unencumbered with legal protests, is for the pentagon to award both teams a contract, presumable for a smaller, and a larger, version. (And with mid-term elections coming up, that would give politicians the opportunity to create even more jobs, with two programs. Oh, I forgot- the process is not political... :).


Also, from the Reuters article, "Retirement eligibility was expected to increase from 13 percent this year to 18 percent in 2011 and 20 percent in 2013, compared with just 5.7 percent in 2008." This seems like a HUGE pending opportunity. Again, actual realization will be somewhat less than desired, as with many 401K's being temporarily (or worse) down, many who could retire will elect to wait. But- many will not.


The 787 -might- evolve from a delightful parade float (especially if you have 80 knot parades or so), to an actual flight article (even if the management at Boeing has to borrow the Goodyear blimp to "float" it before the end of the year). Hopefully, there will be some jobs created by this program next year.

The U.S.Army Airborne Common Sensor platform -might- get going. (Or not, right away, anyway). But, it's been in the works for 10 years, without being cancelled outright, so there is some traction out there for it somewhere. (I think the tanker competition "only" started 8 or 9 years ago!). More tangibly, there are a number of similar small programs in work.

Cirrus seems to be recovering (perhaps despite 85 layoffs announced a few weeks ago). The Cessna Skycatcher will be on the market soon (assembly, service, flight instructor jobs). Diamond seems to be proceeding with some interesting piston planes (the D-50 looks nice!), regardless of the D-Jet.

The Honda program continues to progress, Eclipse is open again in some vestige, Piper continues working on their SEJ, and there are a multitude of Regional Jets (Russian, Chinese, Japanese) in development- from which the supplier base will benefit. Spirit Aerostructures continues to do relatively well.

And Gulfstream is rock'n with their new G-250 and G-650 programs. Not that they haven't had layoffs and furloughs this year as well, but they are big-time committed to these great platforms, and I think that reflects "enthusiasm" over the future.

From the above Reuters report:
"The report showed the aerospace and defense companies were still hiring despite the downturn, and had 21,000 job openings as of April 1 when the data were collected, down from 32,000 a year ago".

The "end of the rainbow" might still be a few months down the road. There are still some storm clouds in the vicinity, and it might be raining where you are at right now, but at least there are some rays of sunshine starting to peek through. We all wish good cheer to our friends who need it now.

48 comments:

Bubba said...

"The stultifying hand of regulation retards progress in aviation and ensures that legacy aircraft and companies have a huge barrier to new entrants from the costs of certification. Much like the homebuilt arena. I know aviation is less forgiving but have long felt that less regulation would result in faster progress and ultimately, more competition, better designs and more safety."

Sailing is the perfect analogy and I agree 100% with your analysis! And now our government want to "fix" health care. God help us all! (because the doctors won't do so after Obama and the Democrats screw up the medical industry)

mountainhigh said...

Talked to Bob B. recently. I got his permission to put the following on the blog. These are his comments on the 1 Sept 09 Pre-Trial Hearing on the Sport-Jet crash:

"It appears that the government has finally stated the reason the Sport-Jet crashed. I have to be honest and admit that I was deficient in never considering the scenario put forth by the government and their aviation experts. And it is not that this scenario has been kept under a blanket either--it has been portrayed thousand of times around the world in the past 40 or more years in the Road Runner cartoons.

Those who followed Wiley E. Coyote, the adversary of the Road Runner, will have no problem remembering how many times poor Wiley E. ran off a cliff carrying a 40-50 lb ball and chain only to realize that after about 20 feet past the cliff edge he was actually in midair; and only then did the laws of gravity prevail. Well, that is virtually identical to the government’s proposed scenario that caused the Sport-Jet crash. Now for those who have doubts about the validity of this concept, fear not. The government’s chief defense attorney during the Pre-Trial Conference stated their experts are some of the most respected aviation professionals in the industry so how could they be wrong.

Our (Excel-Jet) litigation involves more than just fundamental aviation principles of why and how an airplane crashed. It involves discovering the truth behind what really happened and how far the government and their experts will go to support the validity of Wiley E’s trek off the cliff. What is going to be stated by the government’s experts in a US Federal courtroom needs to be broadcast throughout the aviation industry as it will replace over 100 years of aviation knowledge with new principles of aerodynamics that can be applied to any GA pilot."
Robert Bornhofen
President
-----------------

Interesting times ahead!

fred said...

Phil ...
don't be sorry for the Europeans ... ;-)

in fact i think there is something you missed :

IF airbus was to fill the order for Tankers = the Job-situation in the US would be better (as for Jobs ! regardless of N.pride or anything else ) since the Tankers was supposed to be mainly assembled in the US ...

while the Boeing thing will only be a "Less-Bad" situation for the industry as new jobs from scrap won't be created (even if by this way existing jobs would be spared )

Baron : on your comment on 99.99% =

this is exactly the kind of thinking that led to the mess called EAC ...

i agree that mostly everybody with time on hands and money could become a pilot ...

the fact is that 99.99% don't have the passion , patience , time , money or more simply interest to do so ...

ok , Guys , i am Off to Senegal before crossing the "pond" ...

good wind for all , remain safe and well !

jet_fumes said...

Wiley E. Coyote was also very good at shooting himself in the foot.

baron95 said...

Phil,

And THAT was the encouraging news?

I'm sorry but you are grasping at straws. For example, the 787, you mentioned is AT PEAK employment now. That program sucked in all available engineering and line resources at Boeing to address the unplanned work. 787 Employment at Boeing will only go down in WA. It may go up IF Boeing gets a second line up by 2013 or so.

F22 is at peak employment now. So is C5 conversion and a bunch of other programs.

Tanker will linger and linger. Actually the Airbus/NG win will create more employment than a Boeing win, as a whole new assembly line will be set up in the South. But since that will be in a free state and maybe non-union you may not count it.

As for the workers in this industry...what does it tell you, when you have an industry where 1 in 5 workers are retiring in a year? What do you think the impact of Boeing and LM etc having many more retirees with pensions and HC than active workers is going to be?

Hint - remember GM and Chrysler?

Remember the 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s? Airliners were being replaced by newer designs at a fast pace. We went through how many bomber/fighter designs? Dozens.

Now it takes decades to get a new fighter, bomber or airliner in service. And we only do 1 or 2 each decade.

Sad.

baron95 said...

Fred said...the fact is that 99.99% don't have the passion , patience , time , money or more simply interest to do so
---------------------

I think we all agree...but...the question is that we wend from 99.95% not getting into owner-flown GA to 99.99%.

Why?

Why did we sell 20,000 light GA planes in the late 70s and less than 1/10th of that now?

Why did we have more than twice as many student starts back then than now (adjusted for population) and 6 times as much adjusted for disposable income?

baron95 said...

Fred - good luck on your crossing.

If you stop buy in the Northeast US or somewhere in Southern Brazil, let me know - I may meet you ;)

julius said...

"Labor Year" of a long haul pilot:
800-900 flying hours with
"less than 3h of stick time", the majority of which is accumulated on final approach and flare - full text:
Pilot handling skills under threat, says Airbus
.
I think Boeing agrees to this problem.

Is this "flying an a/c"?

If Mary the lexus driver is fond of computer games and never experienced any "blue screens", she will love this way of "driving" and will only be annoyed by the fact that taxiing on airports must be performed manually or by following a follow-me!!!
What happens when she cannot stop the engines because of lack of electrical power (fpj - as designed) and the breakes can't hold the a/c at about 50% start thrust (Phenom 100 - as designed)... Mary will forget flying newly designed a/cs!

Julius

P.S.: Fred good luck with winds and so on!

baron95 said...

Re production in the free South...
------------------
BMW plant in Spartanburg, SC just produced its 1.5 millionth vehicle in the US South.

BMW invaded the South in 1993, and it's first U.S.-made product was popped out in September a year later. Fifteen years after that there have been five factory expansions, 5,000 jobs created, a methane gas pipeline installed, a center for automotive research created, a golf tournament started, and 1.5 million combined versions of the 318i, Z3, Z4, X5 and X6 run over the factory threshold. The 1.5 millionth vehicle was an Oyster Blue and Ivory X6 for a Hong Kong customer. Just goes to show those Confederates might have been right: the South is rising again

(And not a single union job, no union money taken out of the 5,000 folks on payroll every week, no abused workers, no $75/hr)

baron95 said...

Tanker is next ;)

baron95 said...

Did you catch the fact that that German branded, US built, X6 was going to be exported to CHINA????!!!????

Amazing what a properly managed free US autoworker can achieve, huh?

Phil Bell said...

Fred,
Your travels sound exciting- I hope you have a satellite link to keep us informed of your progress.

If you get a chance, please drop me a line at:
aviationcritic@gmail.com

Happy Sailing!

Phil Bell said...

(p.s.- I'd bet on both tankers being approved, a "big'un" and a "little'un". Maximum job creation, minimum litigation. Dang things are probably going to be overpriced anyway, no matter who wins).

Phil Bell said...

Hello Baron,

"For example, the 787, you mentioned is AT PEAK employment now...F22 is at peak employment now".

Sorry- your logic is contradictory. If development is the point of peak employment, then your F22 example is invalid. Otherwise, your 787 example is invalid.

"Airbus/NG win will create more employment than a Boeing win, as a whole new assembly line will be set up in the South"

If you're talking about construction jobs, maybe. If you're talking about aviation industry jobs, no. Why would it take more people to assemble an airplane (Northrop-Grumman), than to fabricate and assemble it (Boeing).

If you're talking about inefficiencies of two production lines for the Airbus 330 (one in Europe, one in the USA) creating more jobs in the world (not a bad perspective to have), then you missed my statement "and create jobs more US jobs".

(But I won't argue that probably the "Tanker will linger and linger." :)

"what does it tell you, when you have an industry where 1 in 5 workers are retiring in a year?"

Um, that the industry will need to hire 20% more people next year.

"What do you think the impact of Boeing and LM etc having many more retirees with pensions and HC than active workers is going to be?"

If the company has been competently managed, nothing.

"Hint - remember GM and Chrysler?"

Hint- remember competent management?

"Remember the 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s? Airliners were being replaced by newer designs at a fast pace. We went through how many bomber/fighter designs? Dozens. Now it takes decades to get a new fighter, bomber or airliner in service. And we only do 1 or 2 each decade."

I think 1950 through 1975 were the "golden age" of aviation, from a "cool" perspective. Guess that the slowing of outwardly visible advances (and, well, speed and convenience) is just a sign of maturing technology, rather than lack of innovation. (Sure makes things less interesting for "airplane watching" though).

fred said...

Phil : thanks for your wishes ...
not sure i will run after the mermaids but i expect quality of life and absolute freedom !

on the Tanker-thing , i think you may be right (taking both) ...
it could be a very nice trap for Boeing = due to the problems with 787 , Airbus now will have a milk-way to claim against the financial-push-ahead they are going to need from tax-payers ...

so to ease any future litigations the best move would be to "Buy" Airbus silence by granting some "bits" of this Mega-contract ...

the remaining questions are:

Do tax payers can afford this ?
Is there any use for "so many" Tankers ?

once again , it's going to be a Bluff-poker where the only valid rule on both sides will be : "Lie as much as you can ..."

Baron : in order to cross safely (easily) i will have (probably) to go as south as 25° South and i intend to stop over in Pôrto-Alegre where i have few good friends , is that south enough for you ? ;-)

Julius : vielen Dank für Ihre Wünsche , ich wünsche Sie das Beste !

i intend to go from Senegal to Brasil (stop in a 2 places P-A and Salvador ) then go up toward the French-West-Indies where i will leave the boat in St-barth over Christmas an New year ...

hope to meet you one day wherever it might be !

for all other , i won't disturb anymore with my diatribes ...
wish you a safe and enjoyable future ...

Beedriver said...

The problem with overseas companies like BMW etc producing in the united states is that the "good jobs " are mostly overseas

head quarters is when the decisions, design etc are made. none of the new developments from BMW like automotive diesels are designed in the U S.

while I am happy that there are more jobs in the US for the workers, these are not good jobs especially if you have the smarts and drive to get a college degree. I am advising my "soon to graduate with a master's degree in engineering" Daughter and Son to look seriously overseas for jobs.

baron95 said...

Phil Bell said...
Sorry- your logic is contradictory. If development is the point of peak employment, then your F22 example is invalid. Otherwise, your 787 example is invalid.
------------------------

Nope.

787 IS IN PRODUCTION.

Production, in this case, is simply overlapping testing and other block II development.

The fact that a lot of unplanned traveled work, need for fixes etc landed at Boeing's lap in Washington, cause Boeing to bring into that program anyone they could find on hand.

Once the 787 production chain is working as planned - i.e. fully stuffed sections arriving ready for joining in WA, then all those folks go away.

These days, for a constant production plan, peak employment is at the start of production - that is when production (at higher hours), left over development and testing is going on.

Yes, the F22 is past absolute peak. It is at a recent production peak, soon to nose dive.

Point is, you won't see employment benefits from these programs, nor the Superbug or the C5 Upgrade, etc.

There are *A LOT* of on peak, near peak or past peak programs.

There is very little (Tanker being one) that are pre-peak. 737 replacement will probably be the next larger civilian program. F35 is pretty much the only other large pre-peak (not by a lot) military fixed wing program.

baron95 said...

PB said...Why would it take more people to assemble an airplane (Northrop-Grumman), than to fabricate and assemble it (Boeing).
----------------------------

1 - NG needs to develop/integrate the boom, systems, etc. Boeing will be starting with their boom, their Japan/Italy tanker. So less engineering.

2 - NG/Airbus final assembly for the Tanker project will be the launching pad for A330 and other Airbus civilian airliner assembly in the US. So long term many of the A330s purchased by USAir and the like may be built in the US next to the tanker line.

3 - Potentially non-IAM, lower cost, more flexible workforce, means that NG/Airbus will tilt the labor/automation equation more towards labor.

4 - A new plant always is less productive (as in needs more labor) than an established line.

baron95 said...

Tanker business should go to NG/Airbus. It is the better product and we need diversification.

Shane Price said...

He's back....

Roel returns to the fray.

Hopefully, this will help Al Mann track Roel down and recover his DIP millions.

But then again, mere millions don't seem to matter to 'our' Al....

Shane

Phil Bell said...

Fred,
It's been a pleasure reading your posts- you will be missed!

(I hope you can drop back in from time to time).

Cheers!

Phil Bell said...

Baron :)

"Phil Bell said...Sorry- your logic is contradictory"


(Baron says):"Nope. 787 IS IN PRODUCTION. Production, in this case, is simply overlapping testing and other block II development."

Phil says (again:),
Sorry- your logic is contradictory.

(to use caps),

F-22 IS IN FLIGHT TEST

There are twice as many flight test F-22 NOW, as there will ever be 787 flight test airplanes.

At a "peak" production rate of, what, 2 per month or so, now down to 1.5 per month, or so, I just don't see the F-22 going out of "production" being a big deal at all.

The supplier base will easily adapt, and expand, to fulfill the higher production rate F-35.

By the time both the 787 is certified AND the F-22 (US) production has ended, there will STILL be twice as many F-22 flight test airplanes, as there every will be 787 flight test airplanes.

(And I wouldn't discount F-22 sales to Japan. Especially in North Korea continues to make noise, and China continutes to do nothing about it. Congress says "No", but given the choice of us doing something about N. Korea, or japan doing something about N. Korea, "you betcha" we'll sell them F-22s, if it comes to that).

While the headline post didn't mention F-22, or F-35, the fact is, the F-35 flight test and production ramp up will "Eclipse" the F-22 effort, given the numbers, and variety of versions, there are.

Phil Bell said...

Hi Shane,

Return of Roel !?!

:)

Turboprop_pilot said...

This is a test: Can anyone find a pattern to Roel's directorships:

Mr Pieper has also been a director of the following companies in the past:

Lernout&Hauspie NV, the company filed for Chapter 11 protection in November 2000.
*

Stonehenge BV, the company filed for insolvency in late 2000, after a failed financing.
*

Opinio BV, the company was put in voluntary insolvency in March 2008.
*

ETIRC BV, the company filed for insolvency in March 2009 after shareholders agreed in super majority to suspend operations.
*

Eclipse Aviation Inc, the company filed for chapter 11 in October 2008 after a refinancing failed and a restructuring was agreed amongst all debt holders.

The winner will receive the chance to invest in the New Eclipse.

exTurboprop_pilot

bill e. goat said...

Fred,
Congrats on the wonderful trip- an excellent adventure no doubt.

I hope you can continue to drop in and update us from time to time.

Thanks for your gracious good wishes for all; the same for you, my friend.

bill e. goat said...

Hi Baron,
I see the Tourette's prescription didn't have a positive effect, and you are still blurting our "unions". More "strong medicine" to help with that disorder coming soon :).

bill e. goat said...

Baron,
I think that's the shortest response I've ever had !!
Must be because it's almost lunch time!
:)

baron95 said...

BEG....

You probably heard of the .com bubble, the telecom bubble, the real estate bubble, the asset bubble.

Well, we simply had a (manufacturing) union-wage bubble in this country. Yes, it lasted a long time 4-5 decades, but its bursting wide open.

Bubba will show you how to build Airbuses for $25/hr in the South pretty soon. Watch.

But fear not. The Detroit, Chicago, Washington DMVs and school system will continue to be 100% unionized - and what a wonderful job they'll continue to do turning kids into thugs and managing the long lines to renew your license.

airsafetyman said...

"Bubba will show you how to build Airbuses for $25/hr in the South pretty soon. Watch."

My understanding is that the aircraft are to be flown from France to Alabama where just the refueling equipment will be installed. Doesn't seem like too many US jobs, but the Airbus entry does seem superior to the 767.

In a related note the RAF took some surplus L-1011s and converted them to tankers, which are still going strong and providing outstanding service. The USAF could do the same with a lot of the low-time 767 airplanes parked in the desert, but incinerating taxpayer dollars is so much more fun.

Shadow said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
julius said...

Turboprop_pilot,

Mr Pieper has also been a director of the following companies in the past:
...


isn't this summary a very special introduction of a new CEO with Pursuit Dynamics?

But it's perhaps also important to notice that RiP is still engaged in ETIRC Aviation Sarl (in Lux - where his legal engagement in Eclipse started)...

To your question: One of n will be ok - that's life (with n < 10)!


Julius

GettingReady2FileSuit said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
GettingReady2FileSuit said...

Was there anything that RP was involved in that didn't end TU?

RP's CV:

Director positions:

Current

Levi9 BV
VandenBorre Hydrogen Integrator BV
Neander Motors AG
ETIRC Aviation Sarl

Previous

Opinio BV
ETIRC BV
Eclipse Aviation Inc.
Bandwidth Technologies Inc.



Mr Pieper has also been a director of the following companies in the past:

Lernout&Hauspie NV, the company filed for Chapter 11 protection in November 2000.

Stonehenge BV, the company filed for insolvency in late 2000, after a failed financing.

Opinio BV, the company was put in voluntary insolvency in March 2008.

ETIRC BV, the company filed for insolvency in March 2009 after shareholders agreed in super majority to suspend operations.

Eclipse Aviation Inc, the company filed for chapter 11 in October 2008 after a refinancing failed and a restructuring was agreed amongst all debt holders.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

The airbus tanker entry is not in the same class as the 767 tanker - that is why they are not comparable.

Airbus went upsize, and if anything should be compared to a 777 tanker (which Boeing said it would build had the contract been spec'd for it - which it was not - only the 767 tanker matched the actual contract spec).

Boeing won on their contract challenge due to significant irregularities not the least of which was major interference by a certain unsuccessful Presidential candidate, as well as unfair scoring.

The original Boeing offer was actually good for everyone (the meat of the offer itself, not the way it was offered), now we are ten years later, millions wasted by government and industry, and STILL with no tanker replacement - just more political BS.

Airbus has nothing on Boeing in terms of tanker knowledge/ability and frankly has zero business being in this business.

airsafetyman said...

"Airbus has nothing on Boeing in terms of tanker knowledge/ability and frankly has zero business being in this business.

What business, the airliner business? The RAF Lockheed L-1011 tanker is performing very well, and I don't think Lockheed had ever designed a tanker before. Some tankers have been bomber conversions and some are airliner conversions. What's the big deal, and why shouldn't Airbus be involved?

bill e. goat said...

Baron,
A wage bubble.
Hmmm.
Novel concept.
Strange I've never heard of it before.
Or, maybe not.

Wages in the manufacturing sector have been going down, because:

1) Manufactured goods are being imported
2) Manufacturing jobs are being exported.

A "bubble" implies a temporary inflation, then deflation.

If we had a sound national strategy for economic health, there need not be a deflation, in manufacturing wages in the US, nor a decrease in manufacturing jobs in the US.

Instead, as a nation, we're exploiting short term convenience of cheap goods at the expense of long term strategy.

If there are any bubbles, it's our bubble-headed short-term mentality. Call it a greed bubble.

bill e. goat said...

Regarding aircraft assembly in the south, I believe Boeing has some experience with that of late.

How's this debacle work out?
1) Abysmal failure because of over-paid union jobs?
2) Wild success because of cheap labor?
3) Schedule and quality problems because of management?

How about we go with door number 3.

Not that the South is a worse, or better, place to build airplanes.
1) Gulfstream does fine there.
2) Boeing does fine in Seattle.
3) Cessna does fine exactly half way in between.

baron95 said...

CW, the A330 is halfway between the 767 and 777 (oversimplifying) in MTOW, ramp footprint, etc.

A tanker is nothing more than a plane with extra fuel tanks and refueling boom.

The KC-30 is a better tanker than the KC-767 for the exact same reasons that the A330 killed the 767 in the airline market place.

A more efficient and properly sized plane.

In addition, given past history, the USAF will keep the next tanker for 100 years or so. The A330 will be in production a lot longer than the 767, therefore parts, support and additional frames will be more readily available to the Airforce.

The 777 will never win THIS tanker competition. It is too big and too expensive.

The next NG/Airbus bid will be even better as they may now be able to base it on the A332F.

The Airforce wants the KC30 and it is only political BS that is preventing them from buying it.

If NG/Airbus put together the right counter-political-BS package - namely a final assembly line for Airbus planes in the South - they will win. And rightly so.

baron95 said...

BEG the bubble is....from pre union (e.g. UAW, ALPS, IAM) to private sector union dominance to post-union levels.

It has all the characteristics of a bubble:

1 - Artificial.
2 - Unsustainable.
3 - Influenced by govmt regulation and preferences (e.g. non-right-to-work laws)

The noise you hear is not the "giant sucking sound" of jobs going to China. It is the slow leak of the wage bubble.

And do you know of another bubble that will burst in about 2-3 decades?

It is the over-regulation bubble. When the US (hopefully) wakes up that while we make it hard to impossible to build factories, refineries, power plants, even playgrounds in the US, China et all can build those things in the time it takes for a US gvmt bureaucrat to deny an application, things will change - again for the better.

When the US behaves again like an
(re)emerging economy that needs to compete to win, that other bubble too will burst.

China is showing the way ;)

Watch and weep.

julius said...

baron95,

China is showing the way ;)


what "way" do you mean... just stop emission because of Olympic games? That was coward or pragmatic, too pragmatic...?

Seems you enjoy meat, fish and sea food with varying doses of hormones, heavy metals etc.
That's the way you like?


I was astonished to learn that the FAA believed that it could sell slots (via an auction) at JFK...
and nobody grilled the responsible secratary... (that wasn't someone of Obama's entourage?).

If one cannot abolish the local bureaucracy one has to improve it!

Julius

P.S. I know improving local bureaucracy is nearly impossible - just nearly!

michal said...

"China is showing the way ;)"

Oh YEAH.

Country with no effective labor laws, no environment protection to speak of, forced abortion, dismal health insurance, etc. Sure, we should all look up to China as a shining star. But who wrote it - Baron - the same fellow who thinks that Airbus will be manufacturing planes in the US, I rest my case.

WhyTech said...

"When the US behaves again like an
(re)emerging economy that needs to compete to win, that other bubble too will burst."

Exactly on target, IMO. However, China is showing A way, not THE way. China is using brute force. We can get a better all around outcome with finesse.

bill e. goat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bill e. goat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Floating Cloud said...

Dear Billy e. Goat:

All is not lost. Things look worse than they really are.

much love

floating cloud

Phil Bell said...

New headline post is up!

(It contains elements of a discussion between Fred and EDT, our two resident economists, and several others, back in Feb. I wish smooth sailing and fair winds to both of them, and all everyone else too!)

bill e. goat said...

Baron,

(a more polite response- sorry for MY Tourette's reaction earlier :).
-------------------------------

"When the US behaves again like an (re)emerging economy that needs to compete to win, that other bubble too will burst. China is showing the way- Watch and weep."

I am at a loss to respond.

How exactly does an emerging economy typically behave- like a second or third world country:

a) With no consumer protection
b) With no environmental protection
c) With no work place safety protection.
d) With no free press protection

I am greatly distressed over cheerleading for the US to become a third world country, with a second world economy, and with a third world political rights, third world environmental protection, and third world social infrastructure.

And it's not inevitable- it's being allowed to happen, for short term profit.

Some of us aren't weeping- we are trying to stop the corruption and shortsightedness that is facilitating it.

I'm troubled that it's a race to the bottom that is being discussed.

(Please- no more suggestions of "racist slurs"- that is quite incorrect. And if one wants to "watch and weep". I admire the man in front of the tank, and the man inside the tank, proving there are good people everywhere. [Too bad there aren't more of them, everywhere]. This was a great example of capitalism, without democracy. China is showing the way).

bill e. goat said...

Floating cloud,
I am thrilled to have secret admirers.

(I fear most of them would like to put me in the trunk of a car for a scenic ride to the beach though- Et tu, Brute" ??)
:)