Mysterious goings on at the Lazy B ranch !!
"Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) --Boeing Co. may not get the 787 Dreamliner flying for another six months following its fifth postponement, said Senior Plc, a British supplier of air ducts and other parts for the plane.
" 'We estimate another six-month delay,' Chief Executive Officer Mark Rollins, said today in a telephone interview. 'Their credibility is somewhat in question.' "
Well, now THERE's a quote for the blog to remember (no doubt, a view well established in the minds of both "advocates" and "critics" of a certain program in ABQ...)
Aviation critics (and enthusasts!!) have long been presented with challenge of finding a good metric for measuring progress of a new development program. First flight is an obvious one. One of my favorites is/was, second flight. And Type Certificate. First Delivery. Entry into Service.
Alas, Eclipse has taught us to re-evaluate the meaning of all those terms...and left me with the ill feeling that the only ones -really- quantifiable are: first flights. Still, I'll go out on a limb, and say TC, and first revenue flight are big milestones for the 787 program.
Along those lines, I'm "keeping score" for everyone wanting to offer a guess on:
a) 787 First Flight
b) Type Certificate Date
c) First Revenue Flight
Extra Credit Problem:
d) Number of aircraft having flown by the end of 2010
Super-Duper Extra Credit Problem:
e) Invent your own metric/milestone and share it with us!
Winner of the 787 First Flight will get a courtesy copy of Shane's forthcoming book.
(I'm pretty sure it will be finished before any of the above items are accomplished...)
415 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 401 – 415 of 415Coldwet: "I would say every day or two that goes by without significant announcement indicates one of two things..."
I don't think so. Eclipse Aerospace has been under a gag agreement. I don't know when it expires, but I'd guess at the closing. More important, I think it is a mistake to assign to Eclipse Aerospace the "talk first, then try to deliver" approach EAC took. I believe the new management intends to talk very little but deliver beyond expectations. It's a refreshing approach.
Similarly, some here have expressed an understandable level of frustration that the only numbers posted here are ones Moses Price took from court documents and posted. They were often misinterpreted by him; they were sometimes flatout incorrect, but that's all that we have. People need to understand that most anybody that knows more than what Moses posted can't repeat it, and wouldn't repeat it here in any event.
The Ad Hoc Committee of Eclipse Customers gained access to the dataroom; those of us who were on that committee have discussed many of the numbers under consideration here. But you're just not going to see any of us repeat numbers--all that information was, of course, subject to an NDA that survives the bankruptcy proceedings.
Ken
dataroom...
sounds important.
Ken, anyone who has any real involvement in aerospace and engine programs, knows, you are clueless.
Kust lik ethose who were inside the "dataroom" know so much that we do not.
You've been wrong all along on every issue except your fuel burn and the fact that you love your plane.
I know 20 people that reviewed EAC data for years and knew it was garbage. The one's that were inexperienced, got burned.
Unless Al Mann puts up $150M... you will begin to see the BS flying as soon as the ink is dry.
As a side business, I have some involvement with turbine engine development and procurement projects; GA, Military and Power Gen... you know, on the side from my duties flying my desk and on the flightline at the school...
- you are way off... while there is some parts commonality, a new cycle is new, in turbine engines.
The dev/cert effort is very costly - in this case $150 million, or thereabouts.
Think PW617 for Raytheon
vs
PW615 for Cessna
vs
PW610 for EAC...
The dev cost si actually a moving target, becasue they can book keep it for 10 years, 15 years, up to them, really. It too WI more than 10 years to reach 1,000 engine for the WRFJ44 series on the Citation...
Do you think they expected to make back the dev costs on the first year or two of production? NO.
Anyhow, figure, based on VR BS, the dev costs were spread accross 5years or 2,000 planes for the PW610.
Just a hunch...
Sorry if I wan't clear enough Ken, the clock starts when they close, as per the scenario I laid out, but only my prediction anyway.
So just days after skewering Shane for his inbox informants and "if you only knew what I know" comments, the faithful come up with the dataroom and "I can't tell you what I know" argument.
Hello pot, meet kettle.
The "dataroom"? Is that next to the "warroom"? Both sound vaguely Dutch; is Roel involved? Does he have his on Roelroom?
Learn something every day.
I apologize for not be that savvy when it comes to email clients in Ireland, but what legally binding agreement does Shane have with his inbox that precludes him from sharing info?
That's easy. Unlike the real one, this "Moses" can say anything he wants.
So if he doesn't say something, it is for a reason...perhaps he doesn't know or perhaps he doesn't want to get caught making something up.
Ken
CU, Shane does it out of respect for the anonymity of his sources, be they good or full of crap, same thing afforded to sources by Stan, and the same reason I am not blasting Ken about his dataroom claims which are, equally unverifiable, potentially just as made up, or possibly just as wrong as the other Eclipse data showing he paid for something he says he did not pay for.
At a certain point we all have to provide each other some modicum of common courtesy and respect or there is zero reason to have any discussion.
The constant digs are serving noone.
A gag order? Are you kidding? The EAC NDA has been so decimated as it is (IS meaning still enforceable) that NAJ/EA is able to do FIKI and NG mods. Give me a break here! Why the secrecy? I'm sure it's for the benefit of ALL owners, right?...Or is it just a few? A gag order begs many questions. As for the dataroom, how pretentious can we get here?
Ken Meyer said...
That's easy. Unlike the real one, this "Moses" can say anything he wants.
Yes, and unlike the real Moses this one led a lot of people AWAY from the Promised Land. Had it not been for Shane and Stan and a few others there would have been many, many more people burned by EAC - just like you!
New headline post is up!
Thanks to everyone for keeping things (reasonably :)
civil and respectful on this thread.
Cheers!
PB
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